Designers will succeed programmers as the kings of Silicon Valley, machines will become as smart as humans, and ambient computing will supplant smartphones in the next few years.

Those are three of the top 10 trends coming in technology, according to five venture capitalists who made their predictions Wednesday night at a local Silicon Valley institution. The Top 10 Tech Trends event has been held annually for the past 18 years by the Churchill Club, which hosts forums with tech’s top executives, financiers, entrepreneurs, and thinkers.

The criteria for the trends are that they must not be obvious and that they will take off within five years, though both rules are frequently broken. Few of the predictions directly involved traditional enterprise computing, which customarily is focused on the nearer-term trends, but virtually all of them are enabled by heavyweight enterprise technologies.

On the panel, all new for this year, were (pictured, from left to right) Pat Grady of Sequoia Capital, John Lilly of Greylock Partners, Emily Melton of DFJ, Ann Miura-Ko of Floodgate and Aydin Senkut of Felicis Ventures, with Forbes Publisher Rich Karlgaard and Forbes Chief Executive Officer Mike Perlis moderating.

The polling of the audience of several hundred execs and managers on what they think of the predictions went digital years ago, but the panelists remain stubbornly analog. They held up green or red paddles to indicate whether they agreed or disagreed with each other’s predictions. Here’s what the VCs expect to see, along with what they and the audience thought of their ideas:

1. Rise of the Designer

Pat Grady says designers are going to be the kings of the next 10 years, replacing software developers. The least bit of friction on apps on your phone causes people to check out, he says, so apps have to be designed beautifully for smartphone users to stick with them. Steve Jobs had design thinking, but the tools are getting better so you don’t have to have a Jobs anymore. (Hmm, I’ll take Steve over a tool any day.) System design and culture design is just as important as product design, he contends.

He gets four red paddles, surprisingly. Why? Lilly says distribution trumps design (one word: Craigslist). Miura-Ko has seen a lot of ugly designs that were very successful. Senkut believes artificial intelligence mass-customizes apps, so user interfaces will change and design per se won’t matter as much. Grady responds that design means core functionality more than pretty pixels. The audience is about evenly split on whether or not this will be a thing.

2. The Rise of the Digital State (and Digital Embassies)

Digital sovereignty is now as important as physical, and countries will need to protect citizens’ identities and digital assets, says Lilly. A lot of our rights is derived from physical location but we’re living more of our lives digitally, so protecting digital rights is growing more important. Estonia said it’s as important to protect the digital state as much as the physical state. America will come along.

The verdict: Three green paddles and one red. Senkut, the lone red paddle, says he doesn’t think it will happen in the next five years. Melton agrees with Lilly on the trend, but doesn’t think it will be a clear path to a utopian society. Grady concedes there will be a wide variance of the trend among various countries. Again, the audience is pretty split, though slightly more are negative.

3. The Rise of the Health-Activated Individual

Rapid democratization of genomic and other personalized health care will give rise to a new wave health-conscious individuals. Melton draws an analogy to personal finance, where people track their assets; here, it’s their health assets such as their genome and microbiomes. Applications using this data will transform the healthcare system.

Three red and one green paddle. Grady agrees with the trend but doesn’t think people will actually take action as a result of this new knowledge, just as they don’t save money; they’ll still eat Twinkies. Lilly just thinks it’s going to take longer; people buy a Fitbit and stick it in their drawer. The issue is a lack of attention or desire, not knowledge, says Miura-Ko. Melton responds that she isn’t arguing that health outcomes will change anytime soon, but people will want information to make the decisions they want to make. The audience goes almost two to one in favor.

4. The Empire Strikes Back

Uber and the like have released a hornet’s nest of what should be regulated or not. Local, state and federal government will try to aggressively reign things in and ruin everything, says Miura-Ko. She draws an analogy, to the lack of seat belt and emissions laws until the 1960s enabling a lot of innovation in autos. (No, she was not kidding. I’m not sure tens of thousands of people killed in auto accidents, or their families, think this “innovation” was worth it.)

All red paddles. Melton agrees there’s some pushback, but she doesn’t take such a negative view. Government isn’t outside us, she points out, and many in government get technology. To his credit, Lilly notes that VCs even more than government officials think they’re the smartest person in the room. It’s more a mixed picture, he believes. For Grady, Melton’s is a U.S.-centric view; in China, many officials are researchers and scientists. He also said the government has been incredibly reasonable about new technologies. Miura-Ko just thinks a lot of people are threatened by technology because they don’t understand it and too many of those are in government, especially the legislative branch. This trend seems like it would be red meat to this business-heavy audience, but they vote it down more than two to one.

5. New Killer Application of Gene Sequencing

There will be a $10 billion new market cap (in new companies) created in five years to leverage gene sequencing, Senkut posits. Liquid biopsy and other techniques are starting to be used to cure cancers.

Panel vote: three greens and a red. Miura-Ko doesn’t disagree but thinks it’s too obvious and there are already companies with $20 billion market caps based on this. So does Grady. But Melton thinks we’re near a tipping point where there will be many more new companies. Senkut explains himself a bit more: He says he’s talking about new companies coming on in bigger numbers. The audience loves this trend, voting two to one in favor.

6. Data Is the New Oil

Machine learning allows for geometric improvement in digital experiences, powering the digital economy like oil did the physical economy. Think of instant rides from Uber, Google’s search engine, auto-tagging of pictures in Facebook, says Grady–they do the work for you. Why is this non-obvious? he asks rhetorically. It’s counter to the traditional narrative of the Valley, which is that innovations will come from startups. This time, it will be driven by giants such as Google and Facebook.

Three panelists go green, one red (though this trend still seems obvious to me). Melton likes the idea of disproportionate returns coming to companies with a lot of important data. Miura-Ko, the one red paddle, agrees data is important, but most of the data warehouses still have data that is 90 percent untouched; lack of data scientists will hold these companies back. Senkut agrees with Grady, but thinks information and insight, more than data, is the new oil. Grady’s response is that he’s not saying all large companies will win, just a handful such as Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook and LinkedIn. Audience verdict: 80 percent, the most decisive vote so far, agree with Grady.

7. Household Robots

We will all start to live with several robots in our houses, each special-purpose. Robots that move around are already here, Lilly concedes, such as the GrillBot that cleans your grill. But robotics is maturing, he notes, and cloud computing means they can all be similarly smart very quickly.

Two reds, a green and a no-show. Senkut isn’t sure how pervasive they will be in five years. Likewise, Miura-Ko thinks it’s difficult to see how soon robotic hands will do nearly as well as humans at putting clothes and dishes away. Melton also doesn’t think growth will be explosive in five years. For Grady, though, five years sounds like a reasonable time frame. Lilly’s response: Robots are things that don’t work; once they work, we call them dishwashers. The audience isn’t convinced, voting it down more than two to one.

8. Kicking Our Mobile Addiction – An Untethered Future

Sensors, smart products and sophisticated interfaces mean consumers will no longer be tethered to a device. Ambient computing interfaces will transform how people interact with technology, Melton contends. Catalysts include better voice recognition and other smarter interfaces. (This was Google’s argument at its I/O conference last week, when it announced many products infused with artificial intelligence.)

The panelists all disagree. It’s going to take a lot longer than five years, Grady says, because there’s no current center of gravity for development such as there is with the iPhone or Android. AR will be a predecessor to ambient computer, and nobody yet has a commanding presence there. Lilly just loves his phone more and more every year, plus we’re profoundly visual beings. Senkut wants the trend to be true, but he thinks the tactile screens are just too appealing to go away. (Personally, I think Melton is on to something, sooner than the panelists think.) Melton does concede the trend could take awhile but thinks new interfaces are on the rise. The audience is split exactly 50-50 on this one.

9. True Human-Level AI Mimics Brain

The human brain will be mapped and brain circuits underlying intelligence will be figured out. Miura-Ko says that will happen because the understanding of the brain has exploded in recent years.

Three panelists like the idea, one doesn’t. Senkut agrees with the trend, but doesn’t think it will happen in five years. Melton also agrees, though she says we’re likely to see narrow applications first. Lilly, the one red paddle, is skeptical silicon can replicate the way how brains work, rather they’re better in very specific ways like calculating. (Indeed, the reality is that we still know little about how the brain actually works, at least at a level that can be emulated in software and hardware, and AI may prove to be a very different kind of intelligence rather than a slavish replication of the human brain.) The audience is somewhat skeptical, 57 percent against.

10. Maker Revolution: 3-D Printing Will Become Mainstream, Starting with Toys

Being able to create physical things has fundamental appeal, says Senkut. 3-D printing is already a $20 billion industry.

All the panelists red-paddle this trend. Miura-Ko says it’s just too expensive; Legos and Play-Doh are a lot cheaper. For Melton, Amazon works better: two-day delivery of anything. Lilly points out that Lego sets may not be much cheaper than 3-D printers these days, but he thinks it’s just too early for 3-D printing of toys. Kids also often want the cool toys, which suggests mass production, adds Grady. But Senkut argues that kids want something in their mind to become real. The audience, though, is just as skeptical, almost 70 percent voting it down.

The overall winner among the audience: Grady’s “Data Is The New Oil,” at 78 percent approval. Other relative winners included health tracking, gene sequencing businesses and ambient computing, with the rise of the designer coming in at 50 percent.

You heard them here first, more or less.

Photo by Robert Hof