The Cable Pipeline: Top 10 Predictions for 2010
December 28, 2009
Filed Under: in Analysis, Home Networking, Infrastructure 2.0, Predictions
Author: Len Grace
Welcome back.
What will 2010 bring for the Cable-Telecom Industry’s? Broadband and Wireless will continue an evolution of defining the way we communicate and make decisions that affect our daily lives in significant ways. Relevant companies will struggle to deal with an ever increasing shift of consumer preferences in their business and home information, communication, and entertainment needs.
Here are my Top 10 Predictions for 2010:
The FCC will move to increase regulation of ISP’s as a way to open broadband options for both business and consumers
The Universal Service Fund will be re-directed to increase broadband access to the underserved
The FCC will gain spectrum back from the broadcasting industry to advance Wireless industry initiatives and will continue to grow exponentially in 2010
Consumers will look for economical and alternative ways to connect to the things that are important to them through a broadband global universe, including information, entertainment, education, and health
Cable TV companies will struggle with a dwindling demand for linear programming and the consumers demand for viewing content on their own terms. TV Everywhere will be a success in the short term
Cable-Telecom companies will continue to struggle with customer satisfaction issues and will begin to focus more on this issue as subscribers continue to migrate elsewhere. Companies like Cox Communications will continue to thrive due to a focus on quality engineering and customer service
Demand for access to content on an A-La-Carte basis will gain ground with Over-The –Top Access Providers making significant head-way during the year
Cable-Telecom companies with underperforming networks will be subject to buy-outs and take-over’s as the industry continues to consolidate and upgrade infrastructures
Verizon (FIOS) will continue to gain market share where rolled-out due to its advanced capabilities for consumers and businesses
The Cable-Telecoms will continue to make their bundles more competitively attractive as they compete for the one-stop-shopping experience
2010 will be all about the customer experience and a continued change in broadband dynamics. The Cable Industry will struggle with a diminishing demand for linear programming, and the success of alternative Over-The-Top models of content access.
I do hope that the Cable companies can figure out how to better meet the demands of consumers. It doesn't stop at the DVR. I definitely believe what you state at the end about the cable industry struggling with the diminishing demand for linear programming. I wonder what your thoughts are on what that struggle looks like. Will it be top execs being fired and replaced? What would be a few great moves for today's Cable company? I'd love to read that.
I think we're on the edge of a five year death spiral for cable companies if they can't get a few critical things figured out:
1) treating the whole connection to the house as a dumb pipe band, rather than a multi-segmented thing.
2) getting a handle on non-linear programming.
3) understanding veg-factor in non-linear programming (something only one or two esoteric DVR setups understand).
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Just my two cents on it all.
John Furrier: The Cable Pipeline: Top 10 Predictions for 2010: http://bit.ly/4qA4Sz
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