UPDATED 15:26 EDT / APRIL 15 2010

DC Showdown with FTC On AdMob- Glenn Manishin Argues Against FTC Blocking Google Buyout of Admob

Today in DC a panel of experts debated the Google Admob acquisition.  No other than our own SiliconAngle contributor and friend Glenn Manishin was there – making an argument – yes he is lawyer and that’s what they do.

Glenn argued against the FTC blocking the Google Admob acquisition.  Here is a good roundup by Juliana Gruenwald of the NationalReview.  I have posted in the past on this issue and I agree with Glenn – here is my opinion but I’m not a lawyer just someone deep in the industry.

The FTC is currently examining Google’s proposed $750 million purchase of AdMob, which is currently the leading provider of mobile ads followed by Google. Together, they control at least 70 percent of the nascent mobile ad market, according to Jonathan Kanter, a former FTC attorney who now represents players in the Internet advertising market including Microsoft.

Kanter argued, during a Capitol Hill forum on the issue sponsored by arts+labs, that the case includes many of the elements FTC officials look to when considering whether to block a merger such as the No. 2 player buying the No. 1 player in a market and a desire to remove the top player as a competitor instead of a need on the part of Google to obtain some technology it currently lacks.

He added that the FTC has a “long history of challenging” mergers in emerging markets because if one party “gets so far ahead, it’s too hard for other people to catch up.”

But Glenn Manishin, a lawyer with Duane and Morris, argued that given how small the mobile advertising market is at this point, it’s “way too soon to make a judgment.” He also disputed Kanter’s claim that there are barriers to market entry in the mobile ad market, saying “if you know anything about Web code,” it would be simple to enter the mobile ad market.

With respect to the FTC it is clear that although of the “Big Three” only one remains independent – Millennial Media, there is big time competition in the mobile advertising space being driven by startups and big companies pivoting to mobile. Google acknowledges this in the story by AllThingsD Mediamemo Peter Kafka.

Having Millennial Media, an independent mobile ad network, available gives choices to developers of mobile apps.  Folks that is competition.   AdMob can’t claim they are the largest independent player with their alignment with Google but that isn’t a bad thing.  In fact AdMob is good for Google, but might give developers pause to their bias.

My Angle: The Mobile Innovation Cycle

image Although there are the big three mobile advertisers in Millennial Media, Google, and Apple, there are more options developing everyday.  Even today developer can get massive reach and monetization with the biggest independent mobile ad network in Millennial.  I don’t see what the fuss is about with Google AdMob.  I don’t see any innovation being stifled with Google getting AdMob.  In fact I wrote about the innovation possibilities last month that developers and mobile ad networks have – I called it the Mobile Innovation Cycle.

In Mobile advertising there are two big things going on

1) the mobile space is changing very rapidly so making a call on what mobile advertising means is still to early – meaning you have applications, games, virtual currency, carrier involvement, and many more new emerging areas, and

2) many startups are emerging from Gowalla and Foursquare to Zynga and Playdom, to Facebook and Twitter, and Cisco and Juniper. It’s a land grab and evolving market sector. Very fuzzy still.

It’s all about developers. The FTC has to let this Google AdMob deal play out. Market forces will ultimately prevail – as an example just look at our angle on  Millennial Media recent acquisition of Tapmetrics. If developers are unhappy with Apple or Google there is Millennial Media to go to. If mobile ad networks are not efficient then apps like Facebook and Twitter are available, and if that doesn’t work then you have infrastructure players like Juniper and Cisco who are working directly with Service Providers who are heavily investing in mobile apps (hence monetization – advertising).

These are only a few of the available options. I’m not even speculating about the hundreds of startups being conceived as we speak.


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