UPDATED 10:51 EDT / JUNE 17 2011

Carbonite vs. Dropbox. Who’s Business Model Wins?

Consultant David Cahill, principal of Diligence Technology Advisors, has published an interesting comparative analysis of the contrasting business models of Carbonite and Dropbox on Wikibon. The somewhat controversial piece, “The Economics of Carbonite, or Lack Thereof”, finds that Carbonite to an extent may be a victim of the period in which it was created, in 2005, just before the Internet 2.0 cloud computing explosion. Therefore, it uses an older and more expensive business model than does Dropbox, a cloud data backup service pioneer created in June 2007. 

The article is triggered by and in part based on information from, Carbonite’s recent IPO. One area he concentrates on is the relative cost of customer acquisition for each of the companies. Carbonite relies heavily on on-air endorsements from 49 national radio talk show personalities and has a sales and marketing spend of $33.1 million per year. In 2010 it added 361,000 new customers, for an average acquisition cost of $91.68 per new customer. And that cost seems to be increasing year-to-year according to the data supplied in the IPO. On the other hand, it shows a 97% retention rate for its customers. The problem, says Cahill, is that Carbonite “never gets off the acquisition cost treadmill” as competition increases. As a result, he argues, the company may never achieve profitable status.

Dropbox, in contrast, relies on a “freemium” model to attract new customers in which it offers 2GB of free data storage. Rather than spending on advertising, it offers a referral bonus, that costs the company little in actual expenses, to existing customers. It also saves by running on Amazon S3 rather than its own hardware as does Carbonite.

Cahill’s conclusion is that in the long run Dropbox has the stronger business model and is more likely to attain high profitability. It and similar services, he seems to say, are in a position to outcompete the older-model data backup systems such as Carbonite. Read the full article here.


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