UPDATED 08:28 EDT / DECEMBER 09 2011

Microsoft Taking Big Risks with Windows 8

A new year is coming, and Microsoft is promising a new tablet and laptop OS, Windows 8. That should be exciting news, but the real question is whether anybody will care.

Microsoft has been trying to freeze the market with leaks and hints of the marvels of this new OS. These include a complete redesign of Windows with a small kernel and integrated hypervisor that will run each application in a separate virtual machine so that a misbehaving app will not cause a system crash; a new GUI based on the innovative Windows 7 Phone GUI, and tighter integration with the cloud to make it easier for users to consume Windows services such as Office 360.

But while Microsoft has been working on this new OS the world has been moving forward. iPads and Android tablets are turning up increasingly into offices. Business software and cloud service vendors such as Adobe and QlikTech are bringing out iPad and Android apps or providing access through HTML5 browsers. Corporate IT shops are actively studying how best to use these tablets to support an increasingly mobile workforce.

The shift is in its infancy this year, but 2012 will see a major increase in business apps and corporate rollouts. By 2013 it may be too late.

Microsoft needs to get Windows 8 into the market as early as possible. But equally it needs to make the new OS bulletproof. Another Windows UX debacle could leave it locked out of the market.

Even if Windows 8 works beautifully, Microsoft may have an uphill battle to retain dominance in the business marketplace. Certainly Windows 8 tablets will carry comparatively steep price tags, closer to laptops than to $200-$450 consumer tablets. Of course they will have much better functionality, but if a $300 Android tablet can do what employees need, why should the company buy $800 Windows 8 tablets instead?

And Windows tablets, with their greater resources to run the larger OS and software that comes with it, are going to need bigger, heavier batteries, which means a more awkward overall physical package. A year ago Microsoft could have countered that by being the only solution that runs everything business users need. Now that key advantage is eroding.

And the technology has changed. Android and iOS tablets appeal to consumers mainly because they are uncomplicated and don’t require complex technical support. And today almost all corporate software comes packaged from vendors, not custom-developed in-house. That means corporate IT can look to its software and SaaS providers for front-end tablet apps and doesn’t need to have the depth of knowledge of these platforms that they do with Windows, making them very easy to support.

None of this is good news for Microsoft. The business tablet market is going to be a high-growth industry for the next few years, and Microsoft needs to get a major portion of it to help drive its corporate growth. Beyond that, tablets are only going to increase their capabilities in the office over time. Today they are supplements to laptops and desktops. Tomorrow they will start replacing laptops in the office as they already in consumers’ homes. If those tablets are iPads and Androids, then Microsoft will see its desktop dominance erode. At that point it will be facing difficult times.

For users, both as consumers and employees, the important underlying issue is the loss of personal freedom. iPads and Android tablets are basically consumer lock-in devices – if you own an iPad then you will buy your digital media, games, and other apps from Apple. And if the Appstore doesn’t have what you want, you cannot go to Amazon, or any of the hundreds of other digital storefronts online today, to get it. Windows, in comparison, allows you to access anything you want on the Internet. That is one reason Windows tablets will be more expensive – the companies making them won’t be making profits off the things you buy. But as a business that means you don’t have to be concerned about whether Apple or Amazon or whoever will approve the business apps you need. And as a consumer it means you can shop where you want and buy what you want, not just what a provider says is okay. In the end businesses and people may find that worth the extra cost.


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