Prospects for the forthcoming Apple Watch aren’t looking great with a poll finding only 5% of phone users will buy one, while a notable venture capitalist has predicted it will be a flop.

Quartz conducted the poll of 811 people, and found that only 2.2% of people were extremely likely to buy the watch, with 3.2% saying they were very likely. 14.3% of respondents said they were somewhat likely, followed by 18.9% not likely, with the largest figure of 61.4% going to not likely at all.

The audience was split roughly 50% iPhone/ non iPhone users, and not surprisingly the percentage of those unlikely to buy one was greater for non-iPhone owners; the watch requires an iPhone to use.  

Cost factor

The expense of the Apple Watch, which starts at $350 for the base model plays a role in the reluctance to acquire one.

60.1% of respondents said they’d be willing to spend less than $200 on an Apple Watch, with a further 25.7% saying they’d be prepared to spend between $200-$300.

Basic Android powered watches can be purchased for under $100, and higher quality offerings from companies such as Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. and Sony Corp. sit at around the $200 mark.

Even among those who expressed interest in buying it, 75% said they’d want to see the watch in person before buying one, with a further 13.8% saying that they didn’t know if they’d want to see one before buying one, indicating perhaps that Apple’s marketing message isn’t getting through.

Educated fortunetelling

The poll results come as Union Square Ventures partner Fred Wilson has predicted the Apple Watch is going to be a flop in 2015.

“Another market where the reality will not live up to the hype is wearables” Wilson wrote. “The Apple Watch will not be the homerun product that iPod, iPhone, and iPad have been.”

Wilson’s skepticism comes from it overall view of the wearables market. “Not everyone will want to wear a computer on their wrist. Eventually, this market will be realized as the personal mesh/personal cloud, but the focus on wearables will be a bit of a headfake and take up a lot of time, energy, and money in 2015 with not a lot of results.”

Watch wearers are a dying breed

Even if Apple does get a decent slice of the wearables market, people who wear watches are a dying breed.

YouGov reported in 2011 that almost 60% of 16-34 year olds use the mobiles as their primary time keeping device. The Daily Mail reported in 2010 that 1 in 7 people don’t feel the need to own a watch, let alone occasionally wear one.

Put simply a growing number of people don’t see the need for a watch when their phones offer the function; if those same people are using their phones to tell the time, why would they want a watch to check their messages?

There is arguably plenty of room for a vibrant wearables market, but Wilson may be ultimately right on watches; not everyone will want to wear a computer on their wrist.