The struggling PC industry won’t get much help from Windows 10 for at least another year, the research outfit Garnter Inc. said in a report yesterday.

According to Gartner’s mystics, global PC shipments are set for a further 4.5 percent decline this year compared to last, to just 300 million units. That’s also a 1.3 percent drop from Gartner’s previous estimates for this year. According to the analysts, the “continued slowdown in PC purchases in Western Europe, Russia, and Japan” are the main factor behind the reduced forecast.

But there’s another factor too, because Gartner says the release of Windows 10 will actually contribute to the decline in PC sales, at least to begin with.

“The release of Windows 10 on 29th July will contribute to a slowing professional demand for mobile PCs and premium ultramobiles in 2015, as lifetimes extend by three months,” Gartner’s Ranjit Atwal predicted.

Essentially what Gartner’s saying is that instead buying a new machine with Windows 10 pre-installed, most Windows 7 and Windows 8 users will just take advantage of Microsoft’s offer and upgrade their current machines for free. Gartner says that will contribute to an extension of the average PC’s lifetime by three months, further hitting sales.

It’s not all bad news though, because OEMs are expected to release a flood of new, low-cost machines built especially with Windows 10 in mind. And as “suppliers and buyers adjust to new prices, Windows 10 could boost replacements during 2016”, Gartner fortells.

More surprising is the news that tablet sales are also expected to fall. Gartner says shipments will decline by 5.3 percent to 214 million units in 2015, although the market will rebound to 228 million units shipped in 2016.

“The tablet market is hit by fewer new buyers, extended life cycles and little innovation to encourage new purchases… The tablet has become a ‘nice to have’ device, and there is no real need for an upgrade as regularly as for the phone,” Gartner analyst Robert Cozza added.

But at least smartphone manufacturers will be happy, for that market is predicted to grow slightly. However, the rate of growth will slow to just 3.3 percent, and that forces Gartner to adjust its overall device sales forecast to just 1.5 percent growth this year, down from the previous 2.8 percent it forecast in the last quarter. And in perhaps the most telling sign there is of a depressed device market, Gartner says total spending on new devices will drop by 5.7 percent this year to just $606 million, the first time since 2010 that spending has fallen.

Gartner’s forecasts come after a number of companies gave similar warnings. Just this week, chip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) told shareholders it’s expecting to see Q2 revenues fall by eight percent, compared to the same quarter last year. Overall it cut almost $50 million from its forecast. And last May, Intel Corp. CEO Brian Krzanich predicted that the PC market would be “flat to slightly down mid single-digits over the long-term,” even with Windows 10’s arrival on the scene.

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