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Predictions 2010: A Work in Progress.

Mark 'Rizzn' Hopkins — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 09:38:11 +0000

Putting together a monster predictions post is always daunting. I remember the first time I had to do one, Pete started bugging me all the way back in November for it, and I didn’t get it done until the second week of December.

That week has come and gone this year, so I’m going to try something new.

I’m going to, for my reflections post, go back to my old predictions for 2008 and 2009 (did I do one for 2009? I’ll hafta check) and see what panned out.

And I’m going to do as many predictions per night as I can muster on this site until I think I’ve covered all I can cover.

I started something of a predictions post last week, talking about convergence. I think a lot of my predictions are going to revolve around the world of mobile, real time web, and cloud.

Here are some broad predictions that I’m obviously going to need to expand a bit for the main post.

Computers will disappear. This is something that Ray Kurzweil said, actually, so I can’t take full credit for it. Here’s what he actually said in his original prediction:

Computers will disappear as distinct physical objects, meaning many will have nontraditional shapes and/or will be embedded in clothing and everyday objects.

I’m pretty sure he originally said this in his 1998 book, The Age of Spiritual Machines. I think we’ve already seen the start of that, and what we’ve seen the hints of now in consumer markets we’ll see go mainstream – devices that we carry around or wear that rely on cloud computing and ubiquitous Internet connections.

I carry two such devices in my pocket every day – my “dumb” phone, which is my private communications portal, and my TwitterPeek, which connects me to my public communications on Facebook and Twitter. Many of you probably have an iPhone or similar device. We’ll see many more of these go mainstream in the near future.

No More Newspapers. TV will Start to Fail. Newsprint is betting big on paywalls, thanks to the ruminations of Rupert Murdoch. This will fail hard. We’ll finally see the death of a major newsprint organization this year. This is an easy prediction to make.

Once one of the big guys gets gone, we’ll start to see them … do more of the same until their death spiral is complete. There is nothing, at this point, that can save the printed news. Even if all the fossils at newsprint organizations decided to get on board with New Media best practices, they’re so far outclassed at this point that it’d never work in time.

We’ll also start to see TV stations start to hit the skids, a process that’ll likely be accelerated by the Comcast-NBCU deal, which will come to fruition late in 2010.

That’s all I can bang out this morning. I’ll probably have some more later today or tomorrow.

1 Comments

December 16, 2009

rizzn

rizzn.com> Predictions 2010: A Work in Progress. http://bit.ly/8NarYb

This comment was originally posted on Twitter

What Constitutes a Lonely Island Anyway?

Mark 'Rizzn' Hopkins — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 20:02:00 +0000

So Good Old Andy Samberg is at it again with his crew of misfits over at SNL have put together a new digital short entitled “I'm On A Boat” with special guest T-Pain! (sarcasm was completely intended with that exclamation point) You can see the complete Digital Short posted above

Apparently Samberg, Akiva Schaffer, and Jorma Taccone are putting all these one hit wonders on physical media under the guise of “The Lonely Island”, who’s Debut Album Incredibad is now in fine retailers everywhere.

I can tell you now that this is the end of the world, and its time to start carrying shovels and identification papers everywhere….because if this album sells at all well, ill eat my shoes. And they are leathery bastards let me tell you.

KnownHost VPS Christmas Offer

Mark 'Rizzn' Hopkins — Thu, 25 Dec 2008 09:38:00 +0000

They actually has a good one, so I wanted to share it Never tried them tho. But, I looked on some reviews on other websites and they tend to be positive, so good luck
Here it goes:

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Hostdime Review

Mark 'Rizzn' Hopkins — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 09:37:00 +0000

I thought after mentioning hostdime's great dedicated server promotion here: Free Dedicated Servers From Hostdime, I should throw a quick review since I am a customer there

Hostdime has been there since 2002, not so much companies are that experienced, and that gices great trust, with locatins and DC in 5 counties, so its a REAL company. I have used around 3 Dedicated Servers from Hostdime (Owned and Adminstrated) other than the shared accounts I had on some of their servers.

I will talk here about thier Dedicated Servers, they have great deals ofcourse as thier latest offer here mentions, but I will talk about the service and support.

Installation Time: Actually they are real fast, I got my server installed and running in 24 hours after it was approved, so I will have they are good at this point.

Support: The support is available 24/7 hands-on, meaning they will work on your server instead of just telling you do that or this. Management which is related to support, their servers are fully managed, and they truly mean it, I always got the help I needed, not instantly but quite fast though.

Uptime: The uptime is not perfect, but for the average user its more than satisfactory if you can space a couple of minutes each month

Security: They run periodic security audits on servers and report back to the owners and can fix the vulnerabilities upon your request. There are some words going around that hostdime is insecure and stuff like that, I cant comment on that, but I never experienced such a thing unless when a user hosted on my servers had a very insecure script running.

Prices: A Fully Managed 2xQuad Core Xeon for a 400$ is a good deal, not the cheapest but definitly a great one.

Over All I do recommend hostdime for your dedicated servers.

Hostdime 99% Discount for the first month on dedicated

Mark 'Rizzn' Hopkins — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 09:36:00 +0000

This is one of the best offers out there guys, check it out!

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Source: WebHosting Talk

Best Hosting Affiliate Programs

Mark 'Rizzn' Hopkins — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 09:33:00 +0000

I looked around for a while up and made a compilation of the best paying hosting affiliate programs out there, which is really paying , anyways here you go:

1. ThinkHost Affiliate program:

They are one of the rare hosts that also pay your for EPC and provide you with special copouns to provide to your referees.

$100 commission per referral at any plan level, + 2nd tier commisions:

referred/mo	$ earned
1-9	$15
10-19	$20
20-49	$35
50-99	$50
100+	$65!!

2. Lunarpages Affiliate program:

With the Lunarpages Affiliate Program, you get:

$65 base commission rate
$5 2nd tier commissions
ready made banners
a unique, close-knit staff
incentives and commission raises at 100 referrals/month!
tailored landing pages at 150 referrals/month

3. Bluehost Affiliate program:

Bluehost will pay you 65$ for each referral you refer to thier hosting, pretty much easy as they offer very cheap and yet very trusted packages, so easy bucks

4. HostGator Affiliate program:

Hostgator has a great one tho, up to 125$ per referral here is the details:

1-5 a month	$50
6-10 a month	$75
11-20 a month	$100
21+ a month	$125

5. Dreamhost Affiliate program:

The thing about dreamhosts program is that you can choose to recieve a one time 97$ referral bonus + 5$ for each 2nd level referal, or you can choose to get paid 10% of all payments your referal makes for lifetime and 5% on the 2nd level referrals.

DedicatedNow: End of year blowout, Real Blowouts ;)

Mark 'Rizzn' Hopkins — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 09:32:00 +0000

DedicatedNow is having a new End of the Year offer, details listed below, please note that solidwebs is not affiliated by anymeans to them.

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-------------------
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-------------------
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-------------------
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Backup: 50GB R1Soft CDP
-------------------
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2GB - $50/month
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500GB SATA - $30/month
750GB SATA - $40/month
1000GB SATA - $50/month
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73GB SAS - $40/month
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RAID 5/10/0 - $50/month

IPs
IP upgrades available, ARIN justification required.

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2 Comments

December 30, 2009

January 14, 2010

HostGator Review

Mark 'Rizzn' Hopkins — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 09:27:00 +0000

Of course all of us know Hostgator, the big hosting company. I remember when hostgator was starting its marketing fuss, claiming they are the best. They are actually very good, but not the best.

They have the best uptime, speed and everything, we all also know about their prices, which other than the Baby plan, you really get what you pay for, tho you can get it cheaper So, I am not going to spend alot of time talking about how good it is, but in brief I will mention what I dislike about them and why you should choose a smaller host.

First of all, they require photo verification for all creditcard payments, tho its a security requirement, I feel its not necessary for shared hosting registration, may be for dedicated.

Secondly, this is not a flaw in their system, but still you should try to get as much as you can for your money. HostGator will offer you support, fast support, but just that, while some other hosts, like our Sponsor for example hehe, will help you to solve your problems step by step, they will even solve it for you, its like a managed hosting account .

Also, whats great about DotMain.com our sponsor is that they offer you every single tool you might need for reselling accounts, starting from templates, premium ones to billing software, all of that completely free, and they help you even set it up.

I’m Over Here Now [FAQ]

Mark 'Rizzn' Hopkins — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 01:23:00 +0000

As of last Friday – the only place to get regular updates from me is here at rizzn.com. Change your email address for me to guesswho@rizzn.com.

Unfortunately, given the amount of buzz going on around the tubes at the moment, I can’t publicly address or answer questions regarding the nature of my departure for my former position. None-the-less, at this point I don’t bear anyone any ill will, and still treasure the time I’ve spent blogging the last fifteen months or so.

It was a great opportunity, and a great learning experience to see what the media world looks like from atop a mountain instead of always being in the unseen trenches.

The questions I’ve seen that I can address and clear up is what’s on the horizon for me next (or at least I can attempt to clear that up).

What Am I Going to be Doing Next?

That’s a real good question. As many of you know, I’m in the midst of a move to Dallas that’s set to conclude the 27th of this month. As such, I’m very interested in what sort of opportunities I’m going to find there.

What’s even more interesting has been the flood of very cool and enticing offers that I’ve seen in just the last few days. This is a brand new experience for me – generally, I’m used to scraping and clawing for every consulting gig I can come across. Now that word is spreading that I’m a free agent, I’m getting people actually trying to compete to employ my talents.

This, needless to say, is awesome, and contributes to my already over-sized ego.

Because I have a glut of opportunity now doesn’t mean I’m not interested in your proposal. Email me with it <guesswho@rizzn.com>. All reasonable offers will be considered (“Let’s cut a deal!”).

For other ways to contact me, just hit up the site. There’s a ton of contact links on it now.

This Site Looks Really Different, By The Way

Yeah, thanks for noticing. This whole thing is a custom coding job I’ve been slowly evolving for the last several months, with a bunch of major additions that I’ve been slipping into the background over the last two weeks in anticipation of this move (yeah, I sorta saw some writing on the wall).

As many of you know (if you’ve been paying attention at all), I tried to launch a web series called “TENtech,” which was a great idea in theory. Problem was, it’s Christmas-time. People are busy. Out of the many contributors that I had signed on to help out, only a few of them ended up being able to contribute.

So as a result, I’m going back to the basics. My favorite thing to do over the last fifteen months was the interview podcast series. I’m going to do the same thing here. I’m going to interview interesting people on camera, most likely via remote video, and display the raw feeds here on Rizzn.com.

On that note, if you’re a CEO or in the PR for a cool tech company and you have a webcam, drop me a line, and let’s get you on the show. I have a ton of subscribers, and I’ve been told I’m pretty fun to talk to.

I don’t have the feeds set up yet, but if you’re subscribed to any of my past video feeds, you’ll likely be getting the show as it comes out. If not, just check back here at the site, I’m sure the details will be prominently plastered everywhere.

Also, New Blogs: Social Networking and ROBOTS!

I’ve been regularly updating a blog that only a few people read, “Rizzn’s Robots” (feeds.feedburner.com/rizzn/robots). It’s something I’ve been interested in doing for a long time, and for some reason never got around to getting done. I’ve found that the updates are easy to do and flow out of me quick, so I think the site will be sustainable from a passion perspective.

If you like robots at all (and if you don’t, what the hell is wrong with you?), I’d strongly suggest you subscribe to it, or at least scroll through what’s there.

I’ve also launched a new blog called “Rizzn’s Socnets” (feeds.feedburner.com/rizzn/socnets). It’s essentially the sort of social media news I’ve been posting the last fifteen months, but here and not there. There aren’t a lot of bloggers that still religiously cover the podcasting and video beats like I do, so I wanted to keep a place where the neglected stories can get some coverage here.

As of last night, I've also signed some deals to have at least two new writers come and work for Rizzn.com, and there's word of me getting an intern as well, so hopefully I'll be able to foster some community here at the site as well as making it a bit of a destination for the news in the style I like to convey.

So until someone else hires me into some sort of exclusive relationship to talk about those topics, I’ll be updating that feed here with whatever’s rumbling around in my head on the topic.

So Are You Signed With Another Outfit Yet?

No, not yet. I’m still fielding offers at the moment, and there are a number of enticing opportunities, but nothing has progressed far enough for me to say exactly where I’m going to land yet.

The Sappy Stuff

I’ve saved the sappy stuff for the end, because most of you are likely interested in the news of what I’m doing next and why I’m leaving and all that other mess. Not to mention that for those of you interested in the personal angle, you hafta read through all my other self-promotion to get to this part.

All my former co-workers had an impact on my life, but I wanted to make special mention of the folks I had the closest contact with, the editorial team.

Pete Cashmore has been one of the most interesting folks to work for in my long history of having interesting bosses. He and I always had whirlwind conversations, and I’ve admired his insight and unique perspective on social media. Of all the bosses I’ve had, he’s been one of my favorites.

Adam Ostrow was a great Editor in Chief, and was cool to work w
ith this past year. He’s got a laid back style that made conflict resolution a breeze (because there’s always some sort of conflict to resolve). That didn’t prevent him from relentlessly executing, and his expectations of his staff caused me to strive to constantly improve. I like to think I succeeded at that.

Stan Schroeder was an awesome editor. He always has a penchant for going straight to the heart of the matter and saying in five words what I take five paragraphs to say. His insight and feedback was something I always valued.

Sean P. Aune was probably the guy on staff with whom I had the most contact, and someone I count as a friend first before I count him as a co-worker. He and I had a blast doing the video version of our podcast, but what was the most fun was commiserating over IM on whatever was the latest thing to vex we cranky bastards.

All the other writers and content producers who’ve worked directly for me over the last year also have been great additions to my life, most of which I also now count as friends and reliable business contacts. In no particular order (I hope I’m not forgetting anyone): Steven Hodson, Alana Taylor, Doriano “Paisano” Carta, Kristen Nicole, Art Lindsey III, and Saha.

As for all the PR people I’ve worked with over the last year – definitely keep me in your rolodex. I’ve actually struck up rewarding friendships with a number of you, and I’ve enjoyed being kept constantly in the know by just opening my inbox.

The Religious Nature of the Singularity

Mark 'Rizzn' Hopkins — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 21:24:00 +0000

Do you believe in the Singularity?

Do you know what it is?

Finding it's roots in the research and philosophies of Ray Kurzweil and Vernor Vinge, it's the idea that all technology is on a path to convergence, and the results of this entail machine sentience, infinite human life extension, and a theoretical future in which the difference between machine intelligence and human intelligence might be indistinguishable from one another.

It's a future I happen to believe in, and something that I think will take place in our lifetime.

That's why I keep an eye out for articles like the one I found today over at Gadget Lab today. The subject of the piece was a speech given by economist James Miller at the Singularity Summit a few weeks ago (an event I really wish I was able to attend - Mashable didn't wanna foot the bill on that indulgence, though).

James Miller's presentation had to do with not just the effect of the Singularity on the general economy (as something like that is almost impossible to predict with a fair degree of accuracy, it's so revolutionary in its nature), but the effect of the expectations of the Singularity.

“Long before there is a singularity, people will come to expect it,” Miller told attendees at the Singularity Summit in San Jose. “And it is very likely that could happen within 20 years.”

The belief that a vastly different future is near could change how people make choices in life, education, investment and retirement, says Miller. “People will become very fearful of death, save less and invest differently,” he says.

Most significant among their choices would be the emphasis on extending life, says Smith. “If you think there will be a machine-driven future then your top priority is to survive long enough to make it to the singularity,” he says.

That means people force Governments to increase its defense spending in a bid to ensure the greatest chance of survival.

“Believers will also want to spend more money to increase their chances of making it to the singularity with things such as safer cars and machines that make jobs such as construction safer,” he says.

This, in and of itself is logical extraction, and while it's worthy of a good ponder, what I found more interesting was some of the reaction in the comments and from the attendees. From one attendee:

Miller’s talk was among the most controversial at the conference. His financial advice especially had some of the attendees riled. “The framing of this discussion into believers and non-believers is ridiculous,” says Eric Acher, an associate with the Sao Paulo, Brazil-based Monashees capital who claims he walked out of the talk towards the end. "The discussion needs to be about the impact of technological progress on society."

And this, from one of the commentors:

Every year, the singularity is looking more like religion and less like science. It has its pope, its doctrine, its annual pilgrimage, its prophets and its prophecies. The coming super intelligent machine is its Messiah.

Decidely, you can take the boys and the girls out of religion but you can't take the religion out of them. hahaha...

Why it struck me personally is that when I was first studying singularity, I was reading The Age of Spiritual Machines by Ray Kurzweil while dating a gal who was a member of the Jehovah's Witness.

You'll Hafta Stick With Me On This, I Promise I'll Bring It Back Around From Religion
If you're not a member of the faith and haven't studied their beliefs very closely, you might not be sure exactly why they're not considered part of the main of Protestant beliefs. As I'm a fairly open-minded fellow, I took the time to meet with some folks from her congregation, attended a few 'meetings', and read a number of their religious texts to get a handle on what it is that they believe.

The chief differences in the JW faith the main of Christianity is that they're a works-based religion, and they don't believe in the Godhood of Christ (and thus discount the concept of the Trinity).

They're also a belief system that very heavily roots itself in end time theology. They have very specific beliefs on how they interpret the book of Revelations, and the timeline of the end-times is very ingrained in every JW member.

For instance, they don't believe that those who are saved will ascend to heaven during the rapture, only a select 144,000 saints pre-selected for their exemplary duty, devotion and works. The rest of the saved will live on a Utopian Earth presided over by Jesus Christ. There will be no need to toil at the Earth for sustenance.

The way it was described to me several times was that the only goal for those that wished to live on beyond the 1000 years Christ and the anointed reigned on Earth would be to live in obedience to him, but that the world would not be defined by the survivalist roots we exist under today.

Also, very interestingly, they believe that these days are upon us imminently, and that the spiritual battle that precedes this will not be visible to humanity, only the effects of the Armageddon. In fact, this process began, as they say, in 1914 when Satan was cast from heaven. World War I was the physical symptom of this spiritual occurrence.

Here's Where it Got Interesting
I generally regarded these beliefs as interesting as a good science fiction novel. I was brought up Christian, but I'm one of the rare few in my particular buckle of the geographic Bible Belt who took the time to learn the why's of what I believe. As such, I came to the conclusion that there is a whole lot we're simply not meant to know, and vast extrapolations in vivid date and detail on what is exactly meant in Revelations is beyond the capability of mortal men.

Essentially, Matthew 25:12-13: "But he answered and said, Verily I say unto you, I know you not. Watch therefore, for ye know neither the day nor the hour wherein the Son of man cometh."

What I did find inte
resting were the striking similarities between the JW's vision of Utopian Earth and the Kurzweilian view of the Singularity.

In The Age of Spiritual Machines, Kurzweil talks about the emerging view of the human body as a machine rather than a chemical soup. This leads to the treatment of the body with more advanced machine like methods, such as Nanotechnology. Meanwhile, the same type of technology is the future of machine building blocks, particularly of Moore's Law continues in perpetuity.

The net effect is that once vast portions (if not all) of the human body are run by nanobots, the idea that we'll need to be constantly fueled by digestion of bio matter through our gastro-intestinal systems becomes a thing of the past. In this Utopian future, virtually all matter could be broken down at the molecular level and re-assembled into the matter needed to deliver nutrients or repairs to the body and mind.

Thus, the need to exist in a world defined by survivalist codes ceases to exist. Fighting over physical territory or raw materials becomes pointless, since virtually all physical matter could be used for the purposes of sustenance.

Furthermore, the process of progressing towards this Singular existence has begun already. The very first steps to understanding and utilizing nanotechnology have long since begun. The progress towards this future takes place hidden in plain sight - we don't notice the technological leaps because we don't see the forest for the trees (could you have predicted the iPhone or The Cloud twenty or thirty years ago? how about five years ago?).

Do I Have a Point?
I'm certainly not suggesting that the Jehovah's Witnesses are onto something. While their end-times beliefs may have some very striking similarities to Singularity theory, their culture and real world effects on their members are very negative, in my experience.

Not to venture too far off into judgementalism, but my personal experiences in their "meetings" left me feeling very cold, almost as if they were attempting to brainwash me out of any sense of individualism. It certainly isn't an experience I'd recommend.

I think the best way to describe this odd correlative story is to relay a different story I picked up from SlashDot earlier today regarding the age of the Monty Python skit:

laejoh writes "Monty Python's 'Dead Parrot sketch' — which featured John Cleese — is some 1,600 years old. A classic scholar has proved the point, by unearthing a Greek version of the world-famous piece. A comedy duo called Hierocles and Philagrius told the original version, only rather than a parrot they used a slave. It concerns a man who complains to his friend that he was sold a slave who dies in his service. His companion replies: 'When he was with me, he never did any such thing!' The joke was discovered in a collection of 265 jokes called Philogelos: The Laugh Addict, which dates from the fourth century AD. Hierocles had gone to meet his maker, and Philagrius had certainly ceased to be, long before John Cleese and Michael Palin reinvented the yarn in 1969."

Once in a while, two trains of thought will arrive at the same station from different origination points. I think this is one of those times. It just so happens that these two origination points couldn't be further from one another, in my opinion.

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