In a post by Richard Wong from Accel Partners he talks about and shares his opinion on the Mobile space specifically fragmentation.

It’s a solid post worth reading. I agree with most of it except Ray’s point about unifying force that he says will never come.

Mobile Innovation Cycle

I’ve talked about our mobile innovation cycle model in a previous post when Millennial Media bought a SF analytic startup.

There is a massive data opportunity in mobile.  Data drives innovation and as I’ve said before data is the new developer kit.

Here are my favorite quotes from his post:

Mobile data is on fire. Despite a few false starts, we are now in the midst of a transformative “Open Mobile 3rd Wave”.

The smartest entrepreneurs will not wait for these fragmentation issues to be solved but are figuring out now how to pick a use case, a core platform, and geography to bound their problem and get going. Once you have initial momentum, you can pick through these fragmentation landmines, and make a 2nd and 3rd step. Don’t wait for the unifying technology to solve these issues before diving in. Its going to be an exciting time to build great mobile companies this next 5-7 years.

Mobile Confusion is High

Here is the issue going on in mobile. There exists fragmentation because of the massive shift in the market.  This shift combined with massive growth has created tons of confusion.  This confusion is at an all time high.

Confusion leads to opportunities hence the entrepreneurial boom in mobile.  No debates there.

Many Will Fail – Only A Few Will Succeed

This will give rise to many new companies and hopefully funding for them.  However, there will be many failures in this marketplace.  This is why I think that Richard’s quote above is so important for entrepreneurs.

Entrepreneurs need to get in the market and figure out where they fit and deal with the fragmentation.  Otherwise it will be hard to strike success.  This also poses some problems for investors like Richard.  The bad news is that there will only be a few major platform like deals – aka the big ventures that are being sought by venture capitalists.  The good news is that there will be thousands of applications/tools/services deals.  This is what the market is bearing right now and to me the core of Richard’s advice.

My advice using a baseball analogy – don’t try for the homerun on the first swing – get on base and score then take another swing.  The key to this strategy – the product strategy and plan.

Product Strategy – Get Into The Market

Startups need to be smart about how to “vector” into the market. This is critical. This should be their core product strategy – build a good enough product to get into the market and then go from there. This is in dark contrast to building what I call “the super product”.

Most companies fail because they build the “super product” in their mind then try to sell it. The product strategy should be to get into the market.

Unifying Factors – Yes It’s Here Already
Where I disagree with Richard Wong is on his point that there will be no unifying factor in mobile. In most hyper growth market there always is a unifying force whether it’s defacto or standard.

Depending upon how you define what needs to be unified it is already here – look at what the Apple iPhone has represented and its’ disruption in the market.

Like MS did in the PC revolution Apple has already done in the mobile world. Apple has shown the way for all – hence the Apple iPhone envy now being displayed across the globe.

The user experience demand is far to great and this is forcing some incumbent vendors to really question their strategy and product roadmaps.

The carnage of vendors that have ‘bet wrong’ are starting to litter the “global Internet superhighway”.

Lesson here for entrepreneurs and innovative companies: make sure you’re on the right side of the street or in other words don’t bet the wrong way – the user experience expectation has already unified the mobile market.

Focus for Developers and Entrepreneurs – The Unifying Equation -User 2.0

I spoke with a friend and mobile executive Doug Garland and he had a good angle on this topic.  Doug passed on the following to me over email:

Doug Garland’s Angle is:

John, I understand the fragmentation issue; however, practically speaking, given the vastly more engaged user behavior on iPhone and Android, a start-up can go a long way by focusing only on those platforms.

Further, given current volumes, you can go a long way by starting with the iPhone, though I expect that to change with the upcoming proliferation of Android devices. After those two platforms, Blackberry does come into play, but they still significantly lag iPhone and Android on user engagement (with obvious exception of email).

Other platforms are less relevant, though there are certainly geographically-based exceptions, especially where Nokia is dominant. Btw, I’m rooting for Palm. They’ve got a great product, but volumes aren’t there

Apple and Google are the unifying platforms and they are driven by the end user experience and expectations. Users are driving the change.