We got our hands on a presentation from Elevation Partners that we just had to share. The presentation by Elevation Co-Founder Roger McNamee goes through ten hypotheses for technology investing. I looked around a bit and it does appear that McNamee has been riffing on these themes as of late.

Here are the ten in ranking order:

“Next” Web Architecture = Hypernet + Hyperweb: The most important transactions are not done on the PC but from devices on your body. McNamee considers this as potentially the biggest disrupting trend in the market.

The Decline & Fall of Windows Unlocks Revenue: McNamee claims that software development on the Windows platform has all but stopped. Still, they are bullish on the company for a few reasons. The company should be okay if they can can adjust model to leverage Exchange monopoly. The question is can they shift to smartphones/tablets to favor SaaS over established client/enterprise apps? They also says the Microsof acquisition of Skype may be brilliant in the fact that they picked up a global telecommunications company for $8 billion.

Index Search is Peaking: Google rode the HTML 4 wave and made a fortune in indexing content. But indexing does not carry very well into mobile and the Android strategy needs some work. Search is still important but the market is carving up. The problem: Google’s opportunities are in lower margin businesses. One thing to remember: Elevation Partners has an investment in Facebook so McNamee’s insights are just a tad bit influenced.

Apple’s Model Threatens Web: Again, it’s important to note that Elevation is a Facebook investor when McNamee trumpets Apple’s edge over Google. But their hypotheses has merit. The iOS does provide more security than the Web. And it is more copyright friendly. And we have to agree that the iOS has an inherent ease to it in accessing the Internet. Apple’s big threat? HTML 5. It means a loss of control for Apple and we know how paranoid the folks in Cupertino can be about losing control.

HTML5 is Game Changer for Publishers:  McNamee sees HTML 5 as not just a programming language but as a new Web experience. He says developers will embed audio and video directly in web pages, replacing Adobe’s Flash and  content publishers will redesign their sites to reduce power of Google and ad networks. Again, there’s some anti-Google rhetoric here but I do like what he says about how everything will become an app.  A CMS, for instance, that is a collection of apps that can be pulled in and out, depending on the situation.

Tablets Are Hugely Disruptive: iPad share is hugely disruptive and could reach 70%. It also has the potential to be the dominant tablet in the enterprise market. It’s uncertain who will step up to Apple, especially with patent disputes coloring market perspectives.

First Wave of Social is Over:Here’s a shocker. McNamee says Facebook has won. They own the social platform. Google+ could be a threat. The real change is when social is built into every product, every app – EVERYTHING. Facebook Connect is the answer. Otherwise, forget it. That’s McNamee’s view. Okay. We get it.

Smartphones in US: Apple + 7 Dwarfs: McNamee makes the point that Apple’s gross margin per unit is the same as Android’s gross revenue on a per unit basis. Apple has a business model and its ecosystem is protected by Apple’s stringent requirements. McNamee asks: “Will HP do anything with WebOS?

Wireless Infrastructure Is a Competitive Threat to US: The United States has the least capable wireless infrastructure in the United States. Current trends suggest gap will grow. There is a chronic under investment in infrastructure by US carriers. Converged technology is not a silver bullet. Will an alternative to carriers emerge?

Integration of TV & Internet Could Be Disruptive: McNamee says cable and satellite vendors have adopted digital technologies for transmission, but prevented such technologies from disrupting their business model. For example, continued use of Nielsen sampling implies carriers have something to fear from the exactness of web measurement of audience sizes. Latest flat panel televisions have potential to disintermediate cable/satellite vendors by improving the consumer experience.

McNamee’s conclusions are the most interesting aspect of the presentation. He’s not bullish at all about the U.S. return to Herbert Hoover economic policies. NASDAQ is no longer functions as a capital formation market.  Private secondary trading is filling the hole.   And Wall Street has “become a centrifuge for spinning the cash out of the economy.

Services Angle

McNamee is bullish on the cloud and investing in multi-screen strategies with HTML 5 as a proxy. McNamee does not talk a lot about services as a major game changer but it is implied in what he sees as the major trends shaping the markets. He’s obviously not an objective critic but there is enough here to get some insights into how the tech market is shaping.