Much is being made of an IDC prediction of falling worldwide tablet sales and the first year-over-year decrease in Apple Inc. iPad purchases. Business Insider deems this “So much for the tablet market – the iPad has hit the wall.”

But isn’t this to be expected? And even not in such a bad way?

IDC expects iPad sales will be down 12 percent from last year and, looking forward, in 2018 only 70 million iPads will be sold, not much of an increase from 2014’s predicted 65 million units. Sales growth for all tablets is likewise expected to slow.

I was never super hot on tablets and have never purchased one, save an old Kindle. I have a first-gen iPad that a client left with me and never wanted returned. It will surprise Apple, perhaps, that this prehistoric iPad still does most of what I want to do, despite running iOS 5-point-something.

Tablets are more like PCs than phones

Matt Rosoff in Business Insider concludes “it seems like people are holding on to their tablets a lot longer than they are with their smartphones.”

That’s not rocket science, but it’s important to understand tablets are not replaced as often as smartphones and track more closely with PCs, which they sometimes replace.

“The only way Apple and other tablet makers can turn that around is by giving customers reasons to buy a tablet instead of a PC. The overall PC market is still huge, with more than 300 million shipping per year. All those PC buyers are potential tablet switchers,” Rosoff concludes.

Let tablets be tablets!

So what’s the doom-and-gloom about? Here’s how I see it:

• People don’t replace tablets as often as smartphones. That’s hardly a surprise.
• A two-or-three-year-old tablet ages much better — in terms of wear-and-tear and technology — than a phone. I tend to kill phones in two years or so, but my old iPad still works, largely because it gets less use and doesn’t live in my pocket.
• Apple has provided no compelling reasons to upgrade and seems unlikely to.
• Tablet replacement cycles are longer than phones but not as long as PCs.
• The only way for Apple to sell more iPads is to make new models more compelling to both new customers and upgraders.
• The other only way to Apple doing a better job convincing businesses to either replace PCs with tablets or purchase tablets in addition to PCs, which I see as the most hopeful scenario. However, as this is an application sale, Apple has less direct impact on creating demand than apps providers.

None of this makes me depressed. Tablets are real products than meet real needs and the race for ever-larger smartphone screens eventually bumps into tablet territory. These phablets are a no-man’s land for me, but they might also help sell tablets to people who don’t want a bendable iPhone in their pocket.

Carriers can help by making it easier and less expensive to add a tablet to an existing smartphone account.

If I were Apple, I’d keep releasing new iPads — it’s a real category — and trudge on to making them more compelling new purchases and shortening upgrade cycles. I’d also be partnering much more heavily with developers who create apps than convince businesses than tablets are a worthy investment.

photo credit: foxbert via photopin cc