Intel Corp. guesstimates there are 600 million PCs in service that are at least four years old. It considers those machines — including many Windows XP boxes — ripe for upgrading when Microsoft Windows 10 is released early next year.

“When we see a healthy macroeconomic environment and an aging installed base we expect a new [OS] deployment. The [PCs] are fantastic and at new price points. That’s kind of a perfect storm, combined with a new OS, and the OS usually pushes the upgrade cycle,” Intel President Renee James said at a finance conference earlier this week.

Despite the rise of tablets and smartphones, PCs still sell about 300 million units per year worldwide. Or maybe I should have said “Despite Windows 8” that PCs still sell, especially when equipped with Windows 7.

Early reviews of Windows 10 have been positive, including a report from Dell Inc., quoted in PC World:

Dell has found that Windows 10 provides a consistent user experience and solves usability issues plaguing Windows 8 users, said Neil Hand, vice president of tablets at Dell, in an earlier interview.

The upcoming OS will let users run the same programs on mobile and desktop devices. That solves a Windows 8 problem, which prevented a large number of programs from working across devices.

“The ability to create applications that are super-scalable from phone to tablet to PC is the big step in a lot of ways,” Hand said.

CNET and other sources expect the current Windows 10 preview program to add a consumer preview in January. Less certain is when the new OS will be formally launched.

Windows 10 hurts holiday sales?

It will be interesting to see if anticipation of Windows 10 can and will hurt holiday PC sales. Normally, I’d expect a new Windows, looming early in the new year, to send people fleeing from the PC aisle at Costco. But that supposes there are people there to flee, and I haven’t seen many.

Enterprise customers, much better informed about Microsoft’s plans, are already buying with Windows 1o in mind. But Windows 10 won’t take off until both business and consumers prove to themselves it’s not another step backward.

With tablet growth slowing, a PC upgrade — especially at today’s low prices — might find its way into early 2015 budgets. While many of us are still very happy running Windows XP, the hardware is showing its age and some key applications, including Office 365, require a more modern operating system.

My take: I’m upgrading

We run five or six Windows machines in my small business. Only one is of Windows 7 vintage, so four or five are upgrade candidates. Each will come with a larger screen that the old machines have and none will cost much over $1,000, and maybe a lot less.

I don’t care about apps that run on everything from Windows phones to tablets to PCs. I may in the future, but not today. What I want is what Microsoft appears intent on delivering: A better operating system than Windows. Show me that and come 2015, I’ll be in a buying mood.

photo credit: Andrew Huff via photopin cc