The Windows 10 operating system is rapidly approaching its end of life, with Microsoft Corp. set to pull the plug on support updates in October 2025.

Although that date is still a fair way off, it could result in millions of personal computers being consigned to the scrap heap. That’s according to a new report from Canalys, the research outfit operated by Informa Group, which states that the increased hardware requirements for Windows 11 rules out many machines from being upgraded.

Canalys estimates that around 240 million PCs could become e-waste by the end of 2025, which represents approximately one-fifth of all Windows 10 devices currently running. It’s a big number, as Canalys points out that if all those machines were folded laptops and stacked one on top of another, they would make a pile that’s 600 kilometers higher than the diameter of the moon.

The issue is not so much the lack of support from Microsoft, but rather the strict hardware requirements for machines running Windows 11, Reuters reported. Those requirements rule out PCs running older central processing units, as well as those machines that do not come with Trusted Platform Module 2.0 security functionality baked in.

“Despite the channel’s growing capabilities to support circularity, partners will not be able to refurbish and resell PCs unsupported by Windows 11,” Canalys stated in its report.

The report will pose a big concern for environmentalists and also for any organization that has prioritized sustainability, though Canalys points out that Microsoft will allow customers to extend support for Windows 10. Users will be able to pay an as yet undecided fee to continue receiving updates for three years past the end of life date, as they were able to when Windows 7 expired.

That’s all well and good, but Canalys says the issue is that Microsoft typically demands companies pay a steep price for these additional security updates. As a result, many organizations will decide it’s more cost-effective to purchase newer PCs instead.

For PC makers, the report will be good news, and indeed, Canalys said last month it expects the PC market to recover from a multiyear decline in 2024 and grow by around 8%.

The report from Canalys follows an even more dire warning from the U.S. Public Interest Research Group, which said in October that the end of support for Windows 10 could result in up to 400 million PCs being scrapped.

Microsoft did not respond to a request from Reuters to comment on the environmental impact of Windows 11-incompatible devices being scrapped. However, it is true that many of the parts within most PCs can be recycled. Hard drives, for instance, can be recycled for materials that can be used in electric vehicle motors and renewable power generation, while laptop batteries can be recycled almost infinitely to recover vital metals such as lithium, cobalt, copper and nickel.

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