Artificial intelligence is set to disrupt 40% of all jobs, according to a new analysis by the International Monetary Fund.

In the 42-page report released Sunday, “Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work,” the IMF talked about the “new industrial revolution.” The consequences for societies and economies might be difficult to understand right now, said the agency, but there will be major disruption in the workplace and the potential for worsening inequality.

“In advanced economies, about 60% of jobs are exposed to AI, due to prevalence of cognitive-task-oriented jobs,” said the researchers. “A new measure of potential AI complementarity suggests that, of these, about half may be negatively affected by AI, while the rest could benefit from enhanced productivity through AI integration. Overall exposure is 40% in emerging market economies and 26% in low-income countries.”

The report is not dissimilar to one Goldman Sachs economists released in March 2023, in which it was suggested that AI would put 300 million jobs at risk over the next decade. Right now, some think we are at a pivotal moment in the history of mankind, something that has persuaded a flurry of technology leaders and researchers that AI development should be put on hold. Nonetheless, in the other camp, there are industry leaders who see AI transforming the world for the benefit of those who inhabit it.

Some jobs, according to the IMF, will be safe due to the fact they have “high complementarity” and will only be enhanced by AI. Such jobs may include surgeons or judges, people who will benefit from generative AI accessing large amounts of data. But there will also be jobs such as telemarketers with “low complementarity,” meaning AI could replace them completely.

“Roughly half the exposed jobs may benefit from AI integration, enhancing productivity,” wrote Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF managing director. “For the other half, AI applications may execute key tasks currently performed by humans, which could lower labor demand, leading to lower wages and reduced hiring. In the most extreme cases, some of these jobs may disappear.”

That would cause social disruption in mostly developed countries, which are able to embrace the technological revolution, but it ultimately could leave poorer nations behind.

“Emerging market and developing economies, often still reliant on manual labor and traditional industries, may initially face fewer AI-induced disruptions,” said the report. “However, these economies may also miss out on early AI-driven productivity gains, given their lack of infrastructure and a skilled workforce. Over time, the AI divide could exacerbate existing economic disparities.”

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