Shares of ASML Holding NV dropped more than 15% today after the company accidentally released its third-quarter financial results one day earlier than expected with a warning for the future. 

The Dutch fab equipment supplier generated a €2.1 billion profit on €7.5 billion in revenue, slightly better than the numbers that analysts had expected. However, ASML warned that its momentum won’t carry over into next year. The company estimated today that its 2025 revenue will range between €30 billion and €35 billion, down from the €30 billion to €40 billion it had projected previously. 

ASML’s disappointing bookings likely also factored into its share price slump today. A company’s bookings data helps track the value of the contracts it signed in a given quarter. For ASML, that number stood at €2.6 billion during the three months ended September, less than half the €5.6 billion that analysts had anticipated.

ASML is the world’s top supplier of lithography systems, the bus-sized machines that chipmakers use to etch transistors into silicon wafers. The company sold 116 such systems in the third quarter, 10 of which were used. ASML credited the strong sales partly to increased demand for DUV lithography machines, which are less capable and costly than the company’s latest hardware.

Better-than-expected growth in ASML’s installed base management business also contributed to the strong quarterly results. The business provides technical support to customers of the company’s lithography systems. It also performs certain related tasks, such as helping chipmakers move ASML gear between their facilities.

The company’s lowered 2025 guidance indicates that chipmakers plan to scale back their hardware spending in some areas. Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen attributed the disappointing outlook partly to lower demand in ASML’s logic segment, which covers revenue from machines used to make processors. He said that a “slower ramp of new nodes” is causing some customers to delay their purchases of logic-optimized lithography hardware.

ASML is also seeing a slowdown in some parts of the memory market, Dassen said. But he stressed that chipmakers are still investing heavily in two types of high-speed memory used to make artificial intelligence chips.

“We do see a lot of focus and strong demand when it comes to technology transitions and particularly as it is related to High Bandwidth Memory and to DDR5,” the executive said. “So again, there anything related to AI is strong, but other than that there are limited capacity additions.”

ASML provided an update on not only the market dynamics that are driving its customers’ hardware investments but also the equipment they’re buying. 

According to the company, an unnamed chipmaker will soon complete the installation of two top-end High NA lithography systems. ASML’s High NA systems, the most advanced of their kind on the market, reportedly cost $380 million apiece. The company expects to recognize revenue from the deal in its earnings results once the installation is complete.

The customer deploying those machines is almost certainly Intel Corp., the only chipmaker known to have received two High NA machines. The company recently disclosed that it has completed the assembly of its second High HA system. 

ASML’s Dassen detailed that the company is also in the process of shipping a High NA system to a second customer. Recent rumors hint that this customer is either Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. or Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. ASML previously stated that it has received orders for 10 to 20 High NA machines.

Photo: ASML