Mobile phone records can be used to accurately predict the geographic spread of dengue epidemics, and the data can also be applied to other infectious diseases, according to a study led by Telenor Research.

Telenor Research, which is the research unit of the Norweigian telecoms operator Telenor Group, teamed up with researchers from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Oxford University, the US Centre for Disease Control and the University of Peshawar for the study, which analyzed the anonymised call records of more than 30 million Telenor Pakistan subscribers at the time of a dengue outbreak in 2013. According to the researchers, their findings demonstrate the enormous potential of mobile data to track and predict the spread of disease epidemics.

The methodology used was relatively simple. The researchers combined call records with dengue climate-suitability maps and estimates of seasonal dengue virus importation. Using that data, they were then able to generate extremely accurate, fine-scale risk maps of the outbreak.

“The maps and tools we created have direct application to future dengue containment and epidemic preparedness, and can also be applied to other infectious diseases,” said Kenth Engø-Monsen, a co-author of the study who heads up data driven development initiatives at Telenor.

According to Engø-Monsen, the massive mobile data set effectively gave the researchers a “bird’s eye view” of human movement throughout Pakistan at the time of the outbreak. Engø-Monsen said this movement is what drives transmission of dengue, and the data allows them to predict which areas are most at risk of an outbreak, allowing authorities to put countermeasures in place to deal with it.

“We look forward to working with public health authorities in Pakistan and elsewhere to deploy them in the prevention and control of future epidemics,” he said.

Dengue is rarely a fatal disease, killing less than one percent of those it infects worldwide. Nevertheless, it’s still a very nasty virus that can cause fever, headaches, muscle and joint pains, and a skin rash that is similar to measles. In rare cases, the condition can lead to dengue hemorrhagic fever, which has a mortality rate of around 50 percent if left untreated. Dengue also happens to be the fastest-spreading tropical disease in the world, with outbreaks occuring in Asia, Africa and the Americas. Currently, there’s no cure or vaccine for the disease.

Telenor said efforts to control dengue generally focus on eliminating the mosquito carriers, but noted that such measures are difficult to implement, and are usually ineffective once a large-scale outbreak is underway. Therefore, with no effective treatment or vaccine available, it’s essential to be able to forecast where the disease will spread.

“Accurate predictive models identifying changing vulnerability to dengue outbreaks are necessary for epidemic preparedness and containment of the virus,” said Caroline Buckee, assistant professor of epidemiology, Harvard University and the study’s senior author. “Because mobile phone data are continuously being collected, they could be used to help national control programmes plan in near real time.”

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