UPDATED 20:52 EDT / NOVEMBER 16 2017

BIG DATA

Big data indeed: Splunk shares leap 14% as earnings beat estimates

Big-data services provider Splunk Inc. saw its shares jump nearly 14 percent in after-hours trading Thursday after delighting Wall Street with fiscal third-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ targets.

The company also issued better-than-expected guidance for the coming quarter. Splunk is one of the leaders in big-data software, which is used by companies to analyze and gain insights from the massive volumes of data they accumulate.

The company on Thursday reported a quarterly net loss of just $50,602, or 36 cents per share. Splunk’s earnings before certain costs such as stock compensation came in at 17 cents per share on revenue of $328.7 million, a 34 percent jump from the same period one year ago.

Wall Street analysts had projected earnings of just 14 cents per share on revenue of $309.2 million. Investors were thrilled with the results, moving Splunk’s share price up to $78.72 in extended trading, well above the stock’s 52-week high of $71.46. “Given strong competitive positioning, better execution and significant scale in the model, we think the stock can trade at or above enterprise software peer multiples,” Mizuho Bank Ltd. tech analyst Abhey Lamba wrote in a note to clients.

Splunk had further positive news when it revealed it had signed up more than 450 new enterprise customers over the last quarter, thanks in part to its expanded partnership with Dell Technologies Inc.-owned Dell EMC. It also introduced a number of new products in the quarter, including the addition of machine learning to its Enterprise and Cloud products, plus new event analytics capabilities in Splunk’s IT Service Intelligence product.

“We are widening our lead in the market,” Splunk Chief Executive Doug Merritt said on the earnings conference call with analysts.

Splunk’s stock also benefited from several positive reports from equities analysts. Drexel Hamilton was among a clutch of analysts on Thursday that reaffirmed their “buy” rating for Splunk’s stock, issuing a $93 price target. Needham also issued a buy rating for Splunk’s stock, describing it as an industry leader with strong products and setting a price target of $95.

Rob Enderle, president and principal analyst of the Enderle Group, was equally impressed, though he cautioned that it remains to be seen if Splunk can keep it up. “These kind of impressive earnings identify Splunk as a major new power player in a lucrative fast-growing segment,” he said. “Now we need to see if this was a fluke or if it’s sustainable.”

For the current quarter, Splunk said it’s expecting revenue in the range of $388 million to $390 million, which is above Wall Street’s consensus of $383 million. The company added that it expects total revenue of $1.55 billion for its full fiscal 2018, in line with Wall Street’s estimates.

Those bullish outlooks reflect Splunk’s leading position in the world of big data software, something that its Merritt noted during an appearance on theCUBE, SiliconANGLE’s mobile livestreaming studio, during Splunk.conf2017 (below). “I really do believe deep in my heart that this is the next $5 billion, $10 billion, $20 billion organization out there,” Merritt said at the time.

A $20 billion valuation is not beyond the realm of possibility given the company’s recent run and the growing interest in all things big data, though getting there won’t be a cakewalk, said Holger Mueller, principal analyst and vice president of Constellation Research Inc.

“Never say never, but before you get to $20 billion you have to make the first five and then the first 10,” Mueller said. “All are substantial changes to the operating model of an enterprise. What we know is that the need to manage big data is growing, and enterprises need solutions to stay on top of the data deluge. At the moment, a rising tide lifts pretty much all boats in the market. The future will tell how Splunk moves from its traditional machine data roots to more general big-data capabilities.”

Image: Splunk/Facebook

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