Despite continuing record iPhone sales, Apple’s iOS is not set to win mobile operating system market share from rival Google’s Android anytime in the near future, according to forecast data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) published on Tuesday.

According to the IDC, Android is set to maintain an estimated 81 percent market share until 2019, as developing markets offering the highest growth potential – such as China and India – are likely to remain “extremely price sensitive.”

Not even the rumored low-cost iPhone 6c will allow Apple to compete with Android vendors in this market where Android-based devices retail for $200 or less, believes the IDC.

Market share vs. profit share

The IDC believes Apple will continue to be successful with its iPhone as it focuses on higher margins compared to its competitors rather than merely chasing market share. Apple is expected to ship 269.6 million iPhones in 2019, up from 192.7 million iPhones shipped in 2014.

By comparison, Android-based smartphone shipments are expected to increase from 1.06 billion units in 2014 to 1.54 billion units in 2019.

More phablets, please

According to the IDC, sales of phablet devices – like the iPhone 6 Plus and Galaxy Note 5 – are set to increase significantly. Sales of phablet-sized devices – those with screens between 5.5 inches and 6 inches – are forecast to increase 84 percent year-over-year in 2015, and account for 71 percent of total shipments by 2019.

Worldwide smartphone growth to drop as demand in China slows 

Worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to grow only 10.4 percent in 2015 to 1.44 billion units, down from 27.5 percent growth in 2014 and lower than the 11.3 percent growth the IDC forecast in May.

The IDC attributes the slowdown in smartphone shipments in 2015 to a more mature Chinese market. China’s smartphone market could see growth of just 1.2 percent in 2015, compared to 19.7 percent in 2014.

Despite this, China is set to remain the largest smartphone market through 2019 with a forecasted share of 23.1 percent, down from 32.3 percent in 2014.

Increased focus on India 

According to IDC Program Director Ryan Reith, India has become “the market with the most potential upside.” India offers both a growing customer base and favorable conditions for manufacturing thanks to financial benefits derived from localized manufacturing.

India’s rising prominence as a growing smartphone market is reflected in recent reports of Xiaomi Inc.’s plans to start a smartphone assembly operation in India, Apple’s increased marketing and retail activity in the country and Taiwan-based Foxconn Technology Group’s India expansion plans.

Image credit: Jon Fingas via Flickr