When we think of automation in the workplace, the first jobs that come to mind of being most at threat are low paying, low-skilled jobs. While this is definitely true, advances in technology are starting to threaten high paying, higher skilled jobs.

Due to the advancements in robotics, artificial intelligence and machine learning, there seem to be very few jobs, if any, that will be completely immune to, if not replacement, then some sort of alteration.

This market snapshot looks at how the progression of machine learning could impact on jobs we thought immune to automation. We look at the impact of automation on the middle class and what support would need to be available to people losing their jobs. We also explore whether, like previous industrial revolutions, more jobs will spring up in the wake of disappearing jobs.

Machine learning progressing rapidly

Automation in the workplace has been happening for some time now, with particular focus on routine jobs (i.e. doing the same thing day in and day out). These are jobs that a set of rules can be written for, and the computer can take over and likely do it quicker and more accurately than a human. These are also the jobs that are most at risk of disappearing completely due to automation.

However, technology is advancing, computers have the ability to learn – called machine learning – and no longer require direct instructions from us. We have seen the likes of IBM’s Watson and Deep Blue who became a Jeopardy and chess champion respectively.

Last month AlphaGO, developed by Google’s DeepMind project, won the first of five matches against the Go world champion, Lee Sedol. This news came just two months after the AI beat professional Go player Fan Hui, an accomplishment that many experts thought was years away. Due to its rapid learning ability, AphaGO was able to strengthen its Go skills between the time of beating Hui and its ultimate five-match competition against Sedol. In mid-March, AphaGO was victorious and went on to beat Sedol four matches to one.  

While machine learning progresses, so too does the risk against many jobs that people thought would be immune to the likes of automation.

Can robots be blamed for the disappearing middle class?

Much has be written and discussed about America’s disappearing middle class, but can part of it be blamed on the increased emergence of automation and robots in the workplace? The fastest disappearing section of the middle class are workers who earn less than $40,000 a year. In President Obama’s recent report to Congress, he warned that for people earning less than $20 per hour there was a 0.83 median probability that automation would replace their jobs. While for people earning between $20 and $40 this probability dropped to 0.31 and 0.04 for workers earning more than $40 per hour.

These stats are in no way surprising as the jobs most at risk of automation, as mentioned, are routine jobs. A report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics sees 62 percent of American jobs paying less than $20. As it is no longer a matter of ‘if’ robots take over these jobs, but rather a matter of ‘when,’ people are starting to ask questions. When a robot takes over a job, the person will no longer receive an income, the robot won’t get an income for doing the job, so where does this money go?

Is a universal basic income the answer?

There has been much discussion globally regarding the introduction of a universal basic income (UBI). This UBI would be provided to all citizens regardless of work. While this is in no way a new initiative, debate regarding the pros and cons of UBI has been going on since the end of World War I, there are certain countries who are starting to explore it more seriously.

One such country pondering UBI is Finland, currently underway with their exploration stage. The actual experiment will start with a small group of citizens at the beginning of 2017 lasting two years, with the government pledging €20 billion (over $22 billion) for the experiment.

The reason for Finland exploring the possibility of a basic income is to find ways to “reshape the social security system in response to changes in the labour market.”

Utrecht, one of the largest cities in the Netherlands, is just one of the 19 Dutch municipalities who are exploring the possibility of providing a basic income (or what they are calling a ‘citizen wage’) to a pilot group of people. Current legislation has now limited the number of municipalities to three.  

While a start date for the scheme is yet to be decided, officials plan to provide a monthly basic income of approximately $946 to a small group of benefit claimants. This money will be provided each month regardless of them having a job, providing them with much-needed security. Any additional money they earn during the month will be added on top of the citizen wage. The main motivation behind Dutch municipalities exploring a basic income is so people can avoid the ‘poverty trap’. A fear that if they earn even a low monthly wage, they risk losing the benefits they are receiving and will potentially be in a worse situation than before.

While both these European cities may be exploring a UBI for alternative reasons, rather than mass job loss due to automation, these experiments may prove very worthwhile when the inevitable happens.

As jobs disappear, will more be created?

Many people assume that like previous industrial revolutions as jobs are eliminated, more jobs will be created to work with the new devices. However, Martin Ford, author of Rise of the Robots, believes that this will not be the case. “Increasingly, machines will be able to take care of themselves, and fewer jobs will be necessary. The effects of this transition could be shattering.”

Between 2015 and 2020, there will be the creation of 2 million jobs in 15 leading countries who account for approximately 65 percent of the world’s total workforce. Unfortunately, this is offset by the loss of 7.1 million jobs due to the rise of AI and robots over the same time period, according to a Davos report.

While it is easy to predict which jobs will fall to automation in the next couple of decades, it is more difficult to know what new jobs will be created from that technology. What will be required for people losing their jobs is accessible training programs to allow them to transition into these new sectors.  

What effect will automation have on our jobs?

While many routine jobs, like receptionists, fast food workers, paralegals etc. are at risk of disappearing completely due to automation, there are other higher-paying jobs, like jobs in the medical and finance sector, for example, that may not disappear, but could be altered dramatically over the next few decades.

A dramatic altering to the roles of these jobs could have an impact on the services these professionals provide as well as a possible negative impact on their monthly salaries.

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