I received an email asking the following.

John: What will be the focus of upcoming breakout technologies of the next decade. As we have seen coming out of past recessions, the emerging companies of today may become the new Microsoft, Cisco, etc.

I’d like to know what tech fields you think are the emerging foundations of the next big thing. Cloud computing and virtualization come to my mind, as does that social networking thing. In what caves of these valleys do we find the gems, if that is the case?

There are other caverns, of course. LED may be an example, and other new types of electronics, video, communications and wireless, of course. Where would you place your bets on the future?

I would really like to hear your thoughts.

Here is my response:

My view is that there are many opportunities around the convergence of the “new web” – meaning the user adoption of web as part of people’s lives is changing and disrupting all incumbent leaders within key industry segments.

I’ve been tracking for two years now the convergence of the “real time social web”, cloud/infrastructure 2.0, and mobile.  That translates to user experience bets (next big consumer company and applications), infrastructure like networking, and devices.  One common theme in which big bets will be made will be around “software” and the “user” (or internet consumer) .

My Angle On The Next Big Areas: 

1) new user and application data – platforms that tie data analysis into applications

2) mobile wireless, apps and networking technology

3) cloud computing & security

4) automation of services/tasks datacenter to mobile/devices

5) explosion of new apps in vertical markets never seen before (healthcare, finance, education, etc)

6) media redefined – both the actual rich media (video) and the publishing & broadcast industries

New Leaders Emerge With Same Old Value Proposition – Deliver on Simplicity and Value

At the end of the day like in other inflections points of history – that is matching recession trend lines with breakout tech companies – the ventures and products that really hit big are the ones that make things 1) simple and elegant, 2) faster to reduce time, and 3) ease to use.

Bottom line: It’s User 2.0 where the user is at the center of the value proposition. Companies that reduce the steps for users, save user time, and makes things easy to use will win big.