It seems that, to some, going Apple and Microsoft free at events such at SXSW is going to be the norm, rather than the exception.

Anton Wahlman, a contributor for The Street, is one of those people. He expects by 2014 that Chrome OS will be selling to the tune of 200 million units, making up nearly half of the PC market today.

The reasons for this?

1. Apple is already a threat to Microsoft’s dominance, with the popularity of the iPad rising at an exponential rate.
2. Chrome OS is faster.
3. Chrome OS is more secure.
4. Chrome OS is cheaper.

While I am all for optimism, and even a big supporter at looking at the positive end of things rather than the negative, I simply can’t make the correlation. Let’s address my concerns one point at a time.

1. Microsoft is vulnerable in the PC Market

Yes, this is true. While I don’t think their dominance is going to be easily taken, there does exist small Windows of opportunity to gain grassroots traction as a viable alternative to a Microsoft world. Let me clarify that this is not because of iOS devices, but rather an abundance of new products being released on many different, and very capable, platforms, which has made consumers very susceptible to jumping ship. Change is becoming the norm for consumers, because the change in the market is swift, whereas before the market remained quite stagnant.

This is simply the beauty of competition that is capable of holding its own.

2. Chrome Is Faster

If I hear one more time that Chrome OS is faster, I might get a little nutty. Chrome is only as fast as the connection. Sure, booting into the main screen in less than twenty seconds is nice, but if you have a 512k DSL connection like my parents do, certain web pages are going to load quite slowly, and they are going to attribute that to Chrome OS being slow, not their Internet connection. After all, you know the marketing scheme will be that Chrome OS alone is fast, not the internet connection required to make it fast!

And please, do not be naive and think consumers will know better, They will not. I can say this because I work retail forty hours a week, I know the average joe.

3. Chrome OS is more secure

If we are looking at security purely from Chrome OS itself, there is no doubt in my mind that it probably is the most secure OS out there. But, much like the Chrome OS is faster bit, Chrome OS is only as secure as the in-the-cloud services that Chrome OS relies on to provide a feature rich experience. Every day there are web apps being attacked, and sometimes successfully exploited, and it has nothing to do with the OS. If for some reason Chrome OS does get 50% market share in the next three years, do not believe for a second that hackers will be attacking Chrome OS itself, rather, they will be attacking web apps that are most popularly used amongst consumers of the Chrome OS. Making our data just as vulnerable as any other OS on the market today, except now we lack a sense of control.

Your data is no longer in your hands.

4. Chrome OS is cheaper

This is very debatable for quite a few reasons, the first reason is the money that needs to be put into securing Google’s own web apps, and providing real customer service support (none of this check a forum, and send an e-mail crap), that will factor into the lifetime cost of the PC. Consumers will also need to consider the cost of data plans that will probably be heavily pushed by retailers, creating a lifetime cost that could reach a thousand plus dollars easily.

Also, do not think for a second that OEM’s will be willing to drop prices so significantly that it will put a dent in their profit margins. Sure, if Chrome OS did manage to take nearly 50% of the PC market, prices would drop, but not to the point of a completely functional $99 PC.

Also, much like the Android phones on market, the best devices cost the same as an iPhone or WP7. If you want the best Chrome OS PC, you’re going to shell out the money for it.

There also must be consideration about the cost of web apps. Most quality web apps require a monthly subscription fee of some sort, and if they don’t now, they probably will later. This is simply another cost that consumers will probably find frustrating when looking into the lifetime cost of a Chrome OS PC.

In essence, a lot needs to be considered with Chrome OS before assuming it’ll be a hit anytime soon. Sure, for the minority such as Louis Gray, the Chrome OS is becoming quite a viable alternative to our Mac and PC-centric world. Hell, if you plopped a PC in front of me with Chrome OS loaded on it, my $1,000 Mac would probably gather dust. But for the general consumer such as my mom, and probably yours, this is not the case.

Plus, we are assuming the Microsoft isn’t going to be responding to the sudden change in market with haste. A problem in and of itself for competitors out there.

[Cross-posted at Winextra]