Tableau beats revenue plan, but discounts and costs tank earnings
Tableau Software Inc. is proving that when investors expect amazing, they don’t take well to pretty good.
The business intelligence heavyweight beat revenue expectations in the second quarter, but missed on profits, reporting less than 1 cent per share compared with analyst projections of five cents. That’s despite the fact that the company said it added 3,900 new customers this quarter, its fastest quarterly growth ever, and that its total customer base now tops 46,000.
“Overall, we are pleased with our second quarter results as they demonstrate that the move to visual analytics continues to thrive,” Chief Executive Officer Christian Chabot said in a statement. Investors didn’t agree, however, bidding the stock down as much as 6 percent in initial after-hours trading, though shares later recovered to fall only 1.5 percent. Update: On Wednesday, the shares were plunging 9 percent in early trading.
This is the second quarter in a row that Tableau has beaten revenue estimates, but still seen its stock knocked back. Part of the disconnect is history. Tableau long had a record of beating earnings expectations handily, but the stock crashed 50 percent in one day in February on weaker guidance. Its stock has come back about 40 percent since then, but is still well off its late 2015 price of $102 and its all-time high of $127.
Customers probably won’t be too concerned. Total revenue was up 32 percent year-over-year in the quarter, while license revenue grew 20 percent and international revenue surged 55 percent. The company also said it closed 332 transactions of greater than $100,000 each, which was up 42 percent over last year. And 16 customers spent more than $1 million. “Our win rates remain strong against all competitors,” Chabot said on the analyst call.
Tableau also announced partnerships with several online learning companies, and it expanded its relationship with Informatica Corp. for data integration services across on-premise and cloud systems.
But there’s no question that the business is slowing. Late last year Chabot told media outlets the company would hire about 1,000 people in 2016. He later scaled back that estimate by half. Chabot may also have tipped his hand about lower earnings at the end of the last quarter when he said the company would get more aggressive on pricing. Lower prices mean lower margins, which translates into lower earnings.
On the earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Tom Walker attributed the earnings shortfall chiefly to higher expenses than planned. That included underestimating the cost of compensation expenses, higher sales commissions thanks to more deals closed than expected, and a company-wide meeting in Seattle where Tableau spent a lot on staff development and training for the launch of its latest software version. He said those expenses won’t repeat in the rest of the year.
The company also maintained high spending on research and development, expenses that will continue. “We’ve got a robust appetite for continuing to invest in R&D,” Walker said, though he added that those expenses could moderate over time.
The uncertainty of Tableau’s shifting business model prompted Deutsche Bank analyst Karl Keirstead to maintain a hold rating on the shares. “The changing sources of pressure on Tableau … lead us to conclude that Tableau is facing a tougher end market, not just executing on a shift in their economic model,” he wrote in a note to clients.
Also, Amazon Web Services’ QuickSight, a business intelligence service currently available in a developer preview, is due to debut commercially in the next month or so, noted Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry. That could provide heavy competition for Tableau, he said in a note to clients.
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