UPDATED 18:06 EDT / AUGUST 02 2018

BIG DATA

Tableau’s strong quarter clouded by weaker full-year forecast

The January 2016 earnings massacre that saw Tableau Software Inc.’s stock fall 50 percent in a single day following a disappointing earnings report is increasingly a distant memory as the business intelligence provider today reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that blew past analyst estimates.

However, the company’s shift to subscriptions continues to take a toll on its visibility into the future, and the stock went on a roller coaster ride in after-hours trading.

Quarterly revenue of $243.6 million beat analyst consensus estimates of $237.2 million and topped the high end of the company’s own estimates of $230 million to $240 million that it laid out last quarter. Break-even earnings eclipsed analysts’ forecasts of an 11-cent loss and Tableau’s own guidance of an 8- to 15-cent loss.

However, the transition from large onetime licenses fees to lower monthly subscription fees is dragging on the company’s growth rate and profit margins, which fell slightly to 87 percent from 89 percent a year ago. Tableau slightly reduced its full-year revenue forecast to $975 million from an earlier high-end goal of $985 million and said full-year losses will come in at up to 5 percent of revenues, or around $50 million.

Chief Financial Officer Damon Fletcher further cautioned that “a faster-than-expected subscription transition may negatively affect” sales and margins for the full year.

Investors initially responded to the mixed full-year forecast by driving shares down more than 4.5 percent after hours, wiping out a 3.8 percent gain in the stock price during the trading day. However, the stock quickly recovered as Tableau executives reassured analysts on the conference call that the reduced forecast didn’t reflect any fundamental weakness in the business.

Rather, the shift to subscriptions is a work-in-progress that’s created some instability in forecasting,  Fletcher said. “We view subscription adoption to be positive for customers,” he said on the earnings call. “We’re moving through that transition as quickly as possible, even if that means a near-term impact on our growth rates and revenue profile.”

On the contrary, the new tiered subscription options that Tableau introduced 16 months ago helped entice a record 4,100 new customers in the quarter, bringing the company’s total customer base to 78,000 organizations, said Chief Ececutive Adam Selinsky (pictured). “More and more customers are becoming aware of the new subscription offerings and working out what it means for them. For most customers, it’s just flat-out better,” he said.

The closely watched annual recurring revenue figure was $697.7 million was up 44 percent year-over-year, while annual subscription revenue grew 181 percent to $291.3 million. Tableau classified 67 percent of its license booking as “ratable” — a term that refers to revenue recognition over the lifetime of the subscription — and said it expects that figure to grow to between 68 percent and 71 percent for the full year.  Subscriptions are expected to comprise three quarters of bookings in the coming quarter, Fletcher said.

Despite the late selloff, Tableau’s share price is now within striking distance of its $127-per-share peak of three years ago. Deutsche Bank AG upgraded the stock from “hold” to “buy” on Tuesday, setting a $120 target price and citing strong new customer growth.

Selinsky said the company is setting its sights on expanding its reach within its already large customer base to address customers other than its traditional base of data scientists and financial analysts. A new subscription plan that starts as low as $12 per user per month, is part of that strategy, but the company still needs to invest aggressively in simplifying the user experience, he said.

“By the time you get to the 20,000th user in an organization, you’re no longer talking about an analyst; you’re talking about a business user,” Selinsky said. Accordingly,  Tableau needs to step up its work in artificial intelligence, natural language interfaces and collaboration. “We have no shortage of work to do,” he said.

Photo: Exasole/Twitter

A message from John Furrier, co-founder of SiliconANGLE:

Your vote of support is important to us and it helps us keep the content FREE.

One click below supports our mission to provide free, deep, and relevant content.  

Join our community on YouTube

Join the community that includes more than 15,000 #CubeAlumni experts, including Amazon.com CEO Andy Jassy, Dell Technologies founder and CEO Michael Dell, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, and many more luminaries and experts.

“TheCUBE is an important partner to the industry. You guys really are a part of our events and we really appreciate you coming and I know people appreciate the content you create as well” – Andy Jassy

THANK YOU