The big five tech firms – Apple Inc., Google LLC, Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Facebook Inc., now Meta Platforms Inc. – often look invincible, destined to grow in importance as the digital world continually expands. But history says that digital leadership is only temporary.

Is this still true? Our research says it probably is. As discussed below, we have identified six scenarios that could disrupt Amazon’s business model over the long course of the 2020s.

New technology. Changes in technology have historically been the most powerful disruptive force. There is certainly no guarantee that Amazon – or America — will be a leader in quantum computing, machine-to-machine architectures, virtual reality and augmented reality, artificial intelligence and other emerging areas. Similarly, software advances that directly connect consumers, suppliers and delivery services could potentially obsolete Amazon’s massive investments in inventory and automated warehouses.

Antitrust intervention. Many politicians from both parties support the view that Amazon’s retail and cloud computing services – and possibly its media, credit card, branded products and other businesses – should be separate companies. Without the vast profits of Amazon Web Services Inc., Amazon’s other initiatives might well be less aggressive on pricing and would be significantly more vulnerable to competition. As we saw with IBM Corp., AT&T Inc. and to a lesser extent Microsoft, antitrust interventions can significantly transform companies and industries over time.

The rise of China. Amazon’s retail business is highly dependent upon imports from China. Given today’s U.S.-China trade tensions, it’s not hard to imagine a future scenario where consumers all around the world are told: “Sorry, that exercise bike is not available from Amazon at this time, but it’s available right now from Alibaba.” Alibaba will also be an aggressive cloud computing provider in many countries.

Bringing work in-house. As spending on cloud computing and software as a service rises, many large organizations will consider moving some work back in-house. Likewise, if global supplies remain tight, leading consumer product firms might prefer to sell their offerings directly to keep as much revenue in-house as possible. The balance between internal and external sourcing has often been cyclical over time.

Environmental pressures. Amazon’s e-commerce model relies heavily on vast fleets of delivery vehicles and durable product packaging, neither of which are particularly green. This could make the company vulnerable to new regulations or changes in consumer behavior and preferences.

Cultural change. Previous industry leaders have become complacent, arrogant or abused their positions. Sometimes, they have also failed to sustain their culture and customer focus once the founding generations retire and new employees rely more on high salaries and bonuses than rapidly rising share prices. There are already signs of employee resistance to Amazon’s demanding work environment, with unionization still a real possibility.

These six scenarios are not predictions, merely plausible narratives that could unfold. Neither are they in any way a criticism of Amazon, whose accomplishments have been extraordinary and whose service to its customers is greatly valued, especially during the pandemic. Indeed, some pressures — such as new technologies and environmental demands – could be important Amazon opportunities going forward.

But the question remains: How likely is significant disruption? To answer this, SiliconANGLE has surveyed more than 400 people — thus far — from its enterprise technology focused audience, rating each of the scenarios described above. (You can take the survey yourself here.)

The initial results are intriguing. Respondents say that all six possibilities are more likely than not, averaging between 5.7 and 6.4 on a scale where 1 is highly unlikely and 10 is highly likely, with cultural change scoring highest at 6.4.

These numbers are higher than we expected. That doesn’t mean they’re right, but it does suggest that during the 2020s, major market shifts are certainly possible for Amazon and the other four tech titans. The digital world is far from reaching a steady state.

What do you think? Take the survey here. Results will be posted soon on SiliconANGLE.

David Moschella is an author and senior fellow at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation.

Image: Amazon/YouTube