By 2018, 80 percent of all smartphones shipped worldwide will run Android and the mobile operating system will own 61 percent of all smartphone revenues. By comparison, iOS will make up only 13 percent of smartphones shipped and 34 percent of revenues. This is according to a new report from International Data Corporation (IDC) forecasting worldwide smartphone growth between 2014 and 2018.

For 2014, Android is expected to ship 1.06 billion smartphones, earning Google Inc.’s mobile operating system 82.3 percent of the smartphone market this year. This is significantly higher than the 178 million units running Apple Inc.’s iOS  forecast to ship by year end –giving iOS a mere 13.8 percent share of the smartphone market for 2014. Windows Phone is a distant third with a 2.7 percent share thanks to only 35 million smartphone shipments.

“Apple’s approach with premium pricing ensures a growing portion of overall revenues despite its declining market share,” Ramon Llamas, Research Manager with IDC’s Mobile Phones team, said in a statement. “Meanwhile, Android’s multi-faceted approach — with forked versions and low-cost Android One strategy — will produce mixed results, yet it allows deeper penetration into emerging markets. That can lead to additional pressure on its vendor partners, who will need to seek greater differentiation in terms of devices and experiences in the hyper-competitive smartphone market.”

IDC forecasts that just shy of 1.3 billion smartphones will have shipped when 2014 draws to a close, which is a 26.3 percent increase over 2013. Looking ahead to 2015 the forecast shows a significant slowdown in growth, projecting only 1.4 billion smartphones shipped for a 12.2 percent year-over-year growth rate. The outlook for 2018 is even bleaker with unit shipments nearing only 1.9 billion, resulting in a 9.8 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the 2014–2018 forecast period.

Perhaps a more blunt indicator of the slowdown is smartphone revenues. According to IDC, “they will be hard hit by the increasingly cutthroat nature of pricing, resulting in a 4.2 percent CAGR over the same forecast period.”

“The impact of upstart Chinese players in the global market will be reflected in a race to the bottom when it comes to price. While premium phones aren’t going anywhere, we are seeing increasingly better specs in more affordable smartphones. Consumers no longer have to go with a top-of-the-line handset to guarantee decent hardware quality or experience,” said Melissa Chau, Senior Research Manager with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.

This is good news for consumers. This year the average price of a smartphone is $297, but according to IDC this will dip to $241 by 2018.

As for lesser-known players or new entrants to the market, IDC predicts an uphill battle. “With Android volumes so dominant, it is no longer a possibility for new operating systems like Tizen and Firefox to compete on price alone – any underdog OS must bring a radically different appeal to gain any significant traction,” IDC said in its press release.

It seems Android will remain unchallenged –at least for the foreseeable future.

photo credit: Michael Kwan (Freelancer) via photopin cc