Tablet PC’s are coming and they will come in a grand fashion. Over time touch based I/O and tablet form factors will become perhaps the most common computing experience for the average user. Microsoft has been trying to popularize tablet based computing for years without any real success. In time I see tablet and hybrid tablet devices outnumbering PC’s potentially 4 to 1, and right now it seems like Apple and Google are prepared to own the market … which could in only a few years lead to a world where most home-based and mobile computing is performed on a non-windows OS … if Microsoft doesn’t step up.

Microsoft has been a proponent of tablet computing for years, however they have failed to successfully capitalize on the market potential for tablet computing to this point. Why? There are 2 reasons, first is that Windows is too heavy of an OS to run particularly well on a very small form factor device. It runs ok, that is unless you compare it to iPad or Android/Chrome tablets. With applications becoming increasingly cloud based the average user does not (or soon will not) need to use heavy client based apps very often. The most common mobile computing tasks do not require heavy client based apps and they need an OS that reflects that.

The other, bigger reason why Microsoft has failed with tablets is due to apps. There a lot of tasks where a tablet format can provide a superior user experience, however that requires that the application be specifically designed and written for a tablet. This is where Apple shines. I hate the fact that the iPad does not make it really easy to use a keyboard, however, it does force developers to think outside the box and bring new levels of effectiveness to touch based I/O. There has also been a ton of media hype surrounding new Chrome or Android based tablets. Google based tablets will also no doubt have a rich application selection with apps specifically designed for touch I/O. I actually think that Google has the most potential to become successful with a Tablet … the iPad ‘s lack of I/O and horsepower severely limit the possibilities of what could be accomplished with a tablet form factor. Apple’s closed style will prevent there from being a lot of form factors for the iPad. Google on the other hand allows freedom to its partners so Google and its partners will be able to offer a wide variety of different form factors. Computers offer a lot of flexibility in what they are used for, and Apple’s one size fits all approach to tablets should ultimately fail as more competitors come to market with good devices that offer an equally good experience and provide a different form factors and horsepower to accommodate different needs. I think that Google’s brand/buzz, open style and partner ecosystem could bring a real iPad killer to the market.

I was very disappointed to hear that the Courier tablet might be cancelled. Honestly given Microsoft’s recent track record of getting into new markets and competing with Apple/Google I did not have high expectations, but I did have hope that they could create something excellent and revolutionary. It seems right now that Microsoft is trying to approach the Tablet market with Windows 7. Comparing Windows 7 with the iPad and Android/Chrome is like reading a chapter in the “Innovator’s Solution” that hasn’t been written yet, the parallels are frightening. A textbook case of low end disruption as the more simple operating systems grows to disrupt the heavily bloated incumbent.

I really hope that Microsoft will announce something to make them more effective in the tablet space, at this point they really need something innovative and revolutionary to increase brand buzz. I think it is not to hard to imagine a world where the average family member each has their own tablet/hybrid for most of their computer needs, and only one home computer for the occasional need for heavier apps … which would mean a world where Windows was pretty much insignificant.

I do hope whether it be Google or Microsoft that somebody does something to stem the encroachment of Apple deeper into personal computing. Apple is evil … I really don’t get it, every other company is accused of being evil and hated for any lack of support for open standards or antitrust issues etc … but Apple is incredibly closed, proprietary and blatantly tries to accomplish vendor lock in as much as possible, and people seem to praise them for it.