UPDATED 21:26 EDT / SEPTEMBER 19 2017

CLOUD

Adobe beats earnings estimates, but its stock falls on muted guidance

Adobe Systems Inc. posted another solid set of financial results that beat out analysts’ expectations and set a new record in terms of quarterly revenue.

The maker of creative software provided via cloud services reported a fiscal third-quarter profit of $419 million, or 84 cents per share. Earnings after certain costs such as stock compensation came in at $1.10 per share on revenues of $1.84 billion, a 26 percent gain from its $1.73 billion in the same quarter a year ago. Those figures easily surpassed Wall Street’s forecast of $1.01 earnings per share on revenues of $1.82 billion.

However, the report results failed to satisfy investors, as Adobe’s shares fell 3.4 percent in after-hours trading, to $151.40, a drop that some reports blamed on fourth-quarter guidance that only tallied with Wall Street’s estimates instead of exceeding them.

A second possible reason for the falling share price could be that the company’s stock remains overvalued, one analyst said. Brian Wieser, senior research analyst at Pivotal Research Group, said in a note that Adobe’s results were “good” and that he continued to look at the company favorably. But he added that the its stock price was still “too expensive relative to the rest of our coverage universe,” giving Adobe a “sell” rating.

“We continue to view the stock as over-valued,” Wieser said. “We think of Adobe’s businesses in a more favorable light than all but a handful of the other companies we cover. However, in context of the stock’s tremendous run-up this year, we would rather be exposed to other companies given the relative value on offer elsewhere.”

Even so, Adobe is on the right track overall. The company’s shift to a cloud-based subscription model has led to a more predictable revenue stream than its previous model, which was based on packaged, licensed software.

The star performer was Adobe’s Digital Media business, which includes its Creative Cloud suite, pulling in $1.27 billion in revenue for the quarter. Adobe said this means the unit’s annualized recurring revenue is now up to $4.87 billion. The Creative Cloud suite itself pulled in $1.06 billion of those revenues, up 33 percent from the same quarter a year ago.

Adobe also drew attention to increased revenues from its Experience Cloud products, which include its advertising, analytics and marketing tools, which generated $508 million over the quarter, up 26 percent from a year ago. Document Cloud revenue totaled $206 million for the quarter.

However, Adobe Chief Executive Shantanu Narayen did admit to being “disappointed” with the Experience Cloud’s third-quarter bookings, though he said he is still “confident in our ability to execute against this large opportunity.”

Narayen also said the company was “investing deeply” in its artificial intelligence framework, called Sensei. “We are making the Adobe Sensei framework and intelligent services available to our ecosystem of partners, ISVs and developers who will deliver additional magic,” he said.

For its fourth quarter, Adobe is projecting earnings of $1.15 per share on revenues of $1.95 billion, close to analysts’ projections of at least $1.10 per share on revenues of $1.95 billion.

Image: Midiman/Flickr

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