After years of speculation, Google LLC could be getting close to facing a lawsuit on antitrust grounds, according to multiple reports published today.

Both the New York Times and the Washington Post reported that the U.S. Justice Department is in the process of briefing states on their planned legal action against Google ahead of filing in coming days what the Times describes as “a landmark case against the tech giant.”

Speculation that Google could find itself in court on antitrust grounds goes back years, but there’s a notable difference between speculation and fact. In January it was reported that U.S. state attorneys general were planning to meet with attorneys from Justice to share information on their ongoing antitrust investigations. Sept. 3 it was reported that Justice could file an antitrust lawsuit against Google as soon as this month.

Confirming the Times report, the Post said the antitrust case against Google could be filed as soon as next week, “capping off a wide-ranging inquiry into the tech giant and the extent to which its sprawling corporate footprint harms rivals and consumers.”

Google is a leader and even dominant in various sectors, starting with search, but being dominant does not make an antitrust lawsuit alone. The industry in which the Justice Department could target Google is advertising. In a separate report, the Times pointed directly at Google’s $3.1 billion acquisition of advertising powerhouse DoubleClick way back in 2007.

That a deal that was done 13 years ago could be grounds for an antitrust lawsuit in 2020 initially does sound somewhat odd given the time that has passed since. That said, antitrust law in the U.S. comes down to ensuring fair competition in marketplaces and Google with DoubleClick is the market leader in online advertising by a large margin. DoubleClick by itself, even ignoring Google’s AdWords business, had a 59.6% share of online advertising as of 2019, according to one measure. Add AdWords on top and Google’s online advertising market share is 73.1%, according to eMarketer.

Google does have competition, but in terms of advertising market share, none that comes close. Facebook Inc. is potentially facing its own antitrust lawsuit from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission, while Apple Inc. is also facing antitrust pressure.

There may be a political angle to the investigations of Google. In particular, it’s being pushed by Attorney General William Barr, with some suggestion that the pursuit is partisan.

Should the Justice Department go after Google in an antitrust lawsuit under the Trump administration, the time to do so is running short. The U.S. general election is Nov. 3 and the current administration, if Trump doesn’t get reelected, would be out by Jan. 20.

Image: DoubleClick