{Editors Note: This is a post in response to my post on Cisco’s Paradox on “rip and replace” verses incremental innovation. Note: I was not offended by any of Steven’s tweets.  Good discussion requires sometimes heated discussions.   Welcome to SiliconANGLE Steven.  This is Steven’s first post.}

First off, I want to apologize to John Furrier and Stu Miniman if my ill-mannered heated tweets offended.  I also want to thank John for the chance to respond publicly on Silicon Angle.

Just to introduce myself, my name is Steven J. Schuchart Jr. and I am the Principle Analyst for Enterprise Networking and Data Center at Current Analysis.

I am approaching this discussion from a data center perspective, which is where the two-layer network model is being pushed based on John Furrier’s post on Silicon Angle. I am not making considerations for the edge, as that isn’t part of the current 2-layer message from Cisco, Brocade, HP, or Juniper.

I agree with the idea that the current “standard” data center networking approach is inadequate when you consider the fully automated and virtualized data center environment movement, referred to by some as “Private Cloud.”

I do not think that any given vendor’s strategy is really fundamentally different for next generation networks. Distill the marketing messages down to the essence and you’ll find few common components that really define next generation networks.

1. One-network convergence, using either FCoE or iSCSI.
2. Full virtual management of the network – It all looks like one big switch, regardless of the number of elements.
3. Automation with server virtualization environments and hardware to facilitate agility of workloads.
4. Management and monitoring that takes into account all elements, servers, networks, and storage.

Impact For Customers

Customers should choose open and multi-vendor implementations for their next generation networks–If only there really were such solutions available on the market today.  HP’s, Juniper’s and Brocade’s offerings are not due until the end of the year or next year.  Add the fact the majority of customers are simply not ready for next generation networks yet, and lock-in and rip-and-replace becomes a tempest in a teacup.

No single vendor–including Cisco—is more vulnerable than any other on a case-by-case basis to rip and replace fears. Cisco is more visible and has more customers to defend, making it harder to defend them all. If you want the next generation network and your current one is old, there is going to be a need to replace equipment.

The arguments regarding rip and replace are largely made in a vacuum.  It does seem like customers will need to do a traumatic rip and replace to take advantage of the new capabilities offered by networking vendors.  However, close examination of the situation reveals something different: The transition to 10GbE and ongoing virtualization efforts are the key.

With careful planning, companies can implement new 10GbE, virtualization enabled, 2-tier networks in a phased approach. New systems go on new servers/blades in the new networking environment.  Old applications can be moved to new hardware the same way, in a phased, incremental approach that minimizes the disruption.  It complicates the data center during the transition, but the benefits of measured change far outweigh the additional dangers and complications of a full-on rip and replace. This change will not happen at breakneck speed.  IT departments have deep memories of Y2K are tired of being pushed too fast.

It just isn’t as easy to characterize Cisco as having to choose between being an expensive mainframe vendor or a cheap PC vendor. Its customers can do both if they are willing to plan.  Cisco must navigate the push towards next generation networks, and when competitors begin to match Cisco on features, Cisco’s traditional disadvantages in price and perceived lock-in will come into play.  HP poses the biggest threat–many customers already are heavily invested in its server and management products and adding networking will be very tempting.  Juniper and Brocade, with their ties to IBM and Dell, represent legitimate threats as well.

It is also important to recognize that Juniper is a special case in this discussion. Its Ethernet switching products are so new it simply doesn’t have any customers with old gear to deal with.  Juniper Ethernet switching customers won’t have to buy a ton of new hardware, which has to do more with the timing of Juniper’s entry into the market than anything else.

While we are at it, let’s talk a bit about vendor lock-in and its conventional wisdom.  A lot of people assume that Cisco wants to lock you into their technologies and goes out of its way to ensure that happens.  There was a time when such a charge might have been true.  Cisco got in a lot of hot water for it and suffers from that reputation to this day.  You must consider the difference between real lock-in and choosing to be locked-in.

When you buy a complete solution, such as Nexus and UCS, you are choosing to use the entire solution.  That doesn’t mean it won’t work with other vendor’s gear.  Considering the infant state of the standards to handle coordination between networks-servers-virtualization, it was the only way to get it done.  In many ways, this gave a tremendous push for real standards.  Cisco tells me they will support such standards.  I see no reason to not believe that.  In the current data center networking market, management software, familiarity, and comfort lock-in customers much more often than any given technology itself.

The point is this:  All vendors want you to use only their gear.  I don’t find Cisco to be any better or any worse in this respect, just much more common in the market, making them stand out.  Avaya/Nortel, HP/3Com, Extreme all have protocols that might be technically standards, but might as well be proprietary since they are the only ones using them.  As long as customers have their eyes open when they make the choice to use these kinds of technologies, it’s not an all-bad thing.

We can’t really call this ball game until all the players are on the field and the audience–the enterprise data center customers–is all in the stands.  It is very early and customers are lagging the marketing by quite a bit. Juniper, Brocade, and HP each have grand plans that will come to fruition in the next year. Standards will be completed and some sanity will come to the marketing hype whipped up by every vendor. Customers should wait until all the options are really known ready and can be ordered.  If they have to have it now, then they will end up at Cisco’s doorstep.

The next 12 months are going to be fun.