When Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella spelled out the company’s revised mission statement last week, he declared that we live in a “mobile first, cloud first world,” and that the company’s strategy is to “build best-in-class platforms and productivity services” for that world.

But some commentators noticed a prominent gap in Nadella’s mobile-first vision: There wasn’t a single mention of Windows Phone or the company’s strategy for that platform. That could spell bad news for those involved in its development, particularly in light of the CEO’s assertion that Microsoft needs to “make some tough choices in areas where things are not working and solve hard problems in ways that drive customer value.”

It’s not working

For those who follow Microsoft, there’s one obvious “area where things are not working” and that’s Windows Phone. The platform holds a miserable 2.7 percent share of the global mobile market according to International Data Corp.’s latest data, compared with 78 percent for Android and 18.3 percent for iOS. In its third quarter earnings report last April, Microsoft even admitted it might just cut its losses and write off the $7.2bn Nokia acquisition. That move could come as soon as this week, according to some sources.

Just last week, Nadella waved farewell to ex-Nokia execs Stephen Elop and Jo Harlow, who previously led the Windows Phone project.

The way things are going, Nadella may well feel tempted to just drop Windows Phone altogether, Jan Dawson, Chief Analyst at Jackdaw Research, told SiliconANGLE in an email interview.

“There’s every indication Nadella was one of the board members who opposed the acquisition [of Nokia] at the time, and I suspect he feels like it’s the one part of the business he’s inherited that’s going to be almost impossible to turn around, so it must be tempting to just ditch it,” Dawson said.

But as tempting as it might be for Nadella to kick Windows Phone aside, Dawson believes a full divestiture is unlikely because mobile is such an important part of Windows 10’s value proposition. He pointed out that the Microsoft devices business is about 95% of the Windows Phone market today, so ditching that business would decimate the Windows Phone market in total, not just rid Microsoft of a problematic business unit.

“I’m skeptical that Microsoft would drop Windows Phone at this point, because it feels like Windows 10 is the last big opportunity for it to turn things around in mobile,” Dawson said.

Holger Mueller, principal analyst & vice president at Constellation Research, Inc., was also skeptical of the rumors Windows Phone might be approaching its swan song. Mueller said it’s essential that Microsoft retain a mobile OS if it wants to be on the same level as Apple and Google, even as it pursues its cross-platform strategy of getting its software onto other platforms.

“You still need mobile know-how around battery life, connectivity, etc., and so I personally think it would be foolish for Microsoft to just give it up,” Mueller said. “Let’s not forget that Microsoft is the only platform vendor that has a soup to nuts, cross-platform development tool set with the Window Universal App.”

Just another piece of the puzzle

So Windows Phone may get a stay of execution for now, but it won’t be the linchpin of Microsoft’s mobile plans by any stretch, Jackdaw’s Dawson said. The best Microsoft can ever hope for is perhaps a 10 percent share of the smartphone market in the next few years, and that’s only if Windows 10 does phenomenally well, he said. In other words, Windows Phone is destined to be just another piece of Microsoft’s mobile puzzle.

Windows 10 “is always going to be a minority operating system in mobile, and as such Microsoft’s mobile strategy has to be much broader than just making its own phones and OS,” Dawson said.

Nadella is fully aware of this, and the company’s cross-platform efforts are already well underway with Office for Android and iOS already available and dozens of other apps for the two platforms under development. By getting its software onto its rival’s platforms, Microsoft is likely to have a decent stake in the mobile market even without Windows Phone, Dawson said. But that strategy comes with its own risks, because neither Apple nor Google is particularly interested in helping Microsoft, and both are deepening the integration of their own core services into their platforms, leaving less room for third parties to make their mark.

“There’s a risk that Microsoft ditches mobile phones and operating systems only to see its third-party services remain permanent second-class citizens on iOS and Android,” Dawson said.

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