UPDATED 12:33 EST / NOVEMBER 18 2010

NetApp Gaining Share Despite Hacker Stock Drop Scare Yesterday – Business is Good For NTAP

Yesterday, NetApp’s stock took a nose dive due to a reported unauthorized access to the earnings data. It was speculated by me that a hacker might have got the data. I still think something is up with that because there was certainly some buying going on with NetApp stock.  As of today the stock is up and someone made some money on the dip (end of my conspiracy theory).

NetApp is solid and looking at the NetApp results it’s clear that NetApp’s business is not only solid, but positioned to gain more share in the market.

NetApp CEO Tom Georgen’s goal is to gain share not on some stock price dollar target. He explains his focus on why they are growing so fast.

NetApp is doing a good job on the efficiency story in fact leading that story according to my sources. Additionally, NetApp has a new product refresh and some analysts agree with my post yesterday that some buying last quarter might have been light given the new announcements. That means more gains for NetApp.

NetApp success continues to be a thorn in EMC’s side despite EMC continuing efforts to kill NetApp. With cloud market exploding and new applications hitting the scene I expect to see increasing datacenter upgrades with migration to cloud architectures.

According to analysts following the stock here are some inside the numbers on NetApp’s lastest financial performance.

On the quarter they beat product revs by $20 mln future driver of sw and services sales, Defered revs beat by $50 mln, margins better 67% vs. our 64% E components and mix.

NTAP just refreshed 80% of their product line and we are coming up on 2 of their seasonally strongest Qtrs. $11 of cash per share and raised FCF estimates to $3.20 per share for FY 2012 so net of cash trading 13x FCF.

Only bear case is share count dilution convert and warrants (80% convert hedged and not reflected in guidance the economic impact 2.5 to 3% dilution, the stock should not be off 10% people freaked out on EPS guide with out knowing the dynamics of convert) and possibly a peak margin argument since they beat 300 bpts and component price declines may have peaked and EPS not as attractive 18x xCash.

NetApp is taking an organic approach to growing their business. Although still smaller compared to some of the other big guys like EMC, HP, and IBM, NetApp is poised to gain more share. NetApp has been quiet of late but given the solid fundamentals and new refreshed product line I expect NetApp to make some big time noise in the market.

We’ll be following them. It’s great to watch a relatively smaller firm put some good moves out in the market all with a big target on their back from the big players.


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